Effects of US policy uncertainty on Swedish GDP growth
Effects of US policy uncertainty on Swedish GDP growth
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DOI：
10.1007/s00181-015-0934-y
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发表时间：
2016-03-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Osterholm, Par
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stockhammar, Par;Osterholm, Par
在本文中，我们研究了美国政策不确定性（Baker et al.（Measuring economic policy uncertainty，2013）的政策不确定性指数）对瑞典GDP增长的影响。因此，研究了冲击对小型开放经济体的溢出效应的另一个来源。我们将贝叶斯VAR模型和谱分析应用于1988年至2013年的季度数据。结果表明，美国政策不确定性的增加对瑞典GDP增长产生了显着的负面影响。这种影响似乎主要来自对投资增长和出口增长的影响。我们的研究结果应该证明是有用的那些谁分析和预测瑞典经济和潜在的其他类似的小型开放经济体。
In this paper, we study the effects of US policy uncertainty-measured as the policy uncertainty index of Baker et al. (Measuring economic policy uncertainty, 2013)-on Swedish GDP growth. Another source of spillovers of shocks to small open economies is thereby examined. We apply both Bayesian VAR models and spectral analysis to quarterly data from 1988 to 2013. Results show that increasing US policy uncertainty has significant negative effects on Swedish GDP growth. The effect seems to primarily stem from effects on investment growth and export growth. Our findings should prove useful to those who analyse and forecast the Swedish economy and potentially also other similar small open economies.