Analysis of net-load forecast error and new methodology to determine Non-Spin Reserve Service requirement
Analysis of net-load forecast error and new methodology to determine Non-Spin Reserve Service requirement
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DOI：
10.1109/pesgm.2016.7741722
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发表时间：
2016-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Nischal P. Rajbhandari;Weifeng Li;P. Du;Sandip Sharma;B. Blevins
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nischal P. Rajbhandari;Weifeng Li;P. Du;Sandip Sharma;B. Blevins
辅助服务对于帮助德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会 (ERCOT) 管理德克萨斯州电网的可靠性和安全性至关重要。非旋转储备服务（NSRS）是ERCOT由发电或负荷资源提供的辅助服务集的一部分，可以在指定时间段（30分钟）内上线，以应对意外的发电停电或较大的预测误差。本研究分析了风能预测误差的统计数据，并描述了一种新方法来确定 NSRS ERCOT 需要采购多少量，以降低因大型净负荷增加事件或风能和负荷预测误差过大而导致的资源短缺风险。
Ancillary Services are critical to help the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to manage the reliability and security of the grid in Texas. Non-Spin Reserve Service (NSRS) is part of ERCOT's ancillary service sets provided by generation or load resources which can come online within a specified time period (30 minutes) to deal with unexpected generation outage or large forecast errors. This study analyzes the statistics of the forecast errors for wind and describes a new way to determine how much NSRS ERCOT needs to procure to reduce the risk of resource deficit caused by large net-load ramp up events or excessive wind and load forecast errors.