Below replacement fertility preferences in Shanghai.
Below replacement fertility preferences in Shanghai.
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DOI：
10.3917/pope.1103.0519
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Morgan SP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Merli MG;Morgan SP
中国已加入低生育率国家的行列;它的总生育率在1.4至1.6之间。很多关于中国未来生育率的猜测，取决于个人的生育意愿和偏好是否远高于国家的生育目标。如果是这样的话，那么放松计划生育限制可能会导致生育率大幅上升。我们直接询问上海户籍居民和流动人口的概率样本，政策放松是否会导致他们生育更多的孩子。我们的研究结果表明，小家庭（一个或两个孩子）的目的是在这个城市环境。如果计划生育政策放宽，相对较少的一部分（不到14%）报告说，他们将修改他们的意图向上。即使是这种温和的增长（高达10%）也是值得怀疑的，因为相对于意图而言，能够降低生育率的因素可能比通胀因素（在上海）更强大。这些实证研究结果有助于在假设不存在政策限制的情况下对生育率的未来进行推测。
China has joined the group of low-fertility countries; it has a TFR somewhere in the range of 1.4 to 1.6. Much speculation about China’s future fertility depends on whether individual’s fertility intentions and preferences are much higher than the state’s fertility goals. If so, then a relaxation of family planning restrictions could lead to a substantial fertility increase. We directly ask a probability sample of Shanghai registered residents and migrants whether a policy relaxation would lead them to have additional children. Our results show that small families (one or two children) are intended in this urban setting. If family planning policy were relaxed, a relatively small fraction (fewer than 14%) reports that they would revise their intentions upward. Even this modest increase (as much as 10%) is suspect because factors that can deflate fertility relative to intentions are likely more powerful than the inflationary ones (in Shanghai). These empirical findings help ground speculations on the future of fertility in the hypothetical absence of policy constraints.