Adaptation to increasing severity of phoma stem canker on winter oilseed rape in the UK under climate change
Adaptation to increasing severity of phoma stem canker on winter oilseed rape in the UK under climate change
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DOI：
10.1017/s002185961000064x
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发表时间：
2010-12-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Fitt, B. D. L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barnes, A. P.;Wreford, A.;Fitt, B. D. L.
各种适应战略，将尽量减少或否定预测的气候变化相关的增加，在英国冬季油菜（OSR）生产的茎点霉茎溃疡病的产量损失。对OSR产量、国民生产和随后的经济价值提出了一些预测，提供了不同适应水平对产量和价值影响的估计。在未来的气候变化情景下，将产量维持在目前水平的压力将越来越大。通过“低”适应战略，可以在短期内（到2020年代）将损失降到最低，这基本上需要农民主导的一些变化，以实现最佳管理做法。然而，气候变化的预测影响可以被否定，在大多数情况下，可以通过“高”适应战略得到改善。这就需要公共和私营部门提供更多的资金，生产者也需要作出更有针对性的适应努力。大多数关于适应气候变化的文献侧重于概念，很少量化影响。有人认为，量化适应的影响对于提供更明确的信息以指导政策和行业应对未来气候变化风险的方法至关重要。
Various adaptation strategies are available that will minimize or negate predicted climate change-related increases in yield loss from phoma stem canker in UK winter oilseed rape (OSR) production. A number of forecasts for OSR yield, national production and subsequent economic values are presented, providing estimates of impacts on both yield and value for different levels of adaptation. Under future climate change scenarios, there will be increasing pressure to maintain yields at current levels. Losses can be minimized in the short term (up to the 2020s) with a 'low'-adaptation strategy, which essentially requires some farmer-led changes towards best management practices. However, the predicted impacts of climate change can be negated and, in most cases, improved upon, with 'high'adaptation strategies. This requires increased funding from both the public and private sectors and more directed efforts at adaptation from the producer. Most literature on adaptation to climate change has had a conceptual focus with little quantification of impacts. It is argued that quantifying the impacts of adaptation is essential to provide clearer information to guide policy and industry approaches to future climate change risk.