Assessing changes in risk of amplified planetary waves in a warming world
Assessing changes in risk of amplified planetary waves in a warming world
复制标题
评估变暖世界中行星波放大风险的变化
DOI：
10.1002/asl.929
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Huntingford C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huntingford C
夏季极端天气通常与高振幅大气行星波有关（Petoukhov等人，2013年）的报告。这样的条件导致稳定的天气模式，引发热浪，有时甚至是长时间的强降雨。这些被称为准共振放大（QRA）周期的波事件相对罕见，因此在气象记录中只提供了几个数据点进行分析。在这里，我们使用与缓慢演变的边界条件相结合的大气模型（即，气候），以补充测量。具体来说，我们通过采用一个独特的大规模大气气候模拟集合来填充事件发生的统计分布，来评估共振事件的发生概率。我们专注于2003年和2015年有记录以来两次最极端的欧洲热浪期间的放大波（Russo等人，2015）。这些年来与其他模拟近年来（1987-2011年），并严格对没有气候变化的模拟世界进行比较。我们发现，波浪事件可能性的统计特征在年份之间存在差异，这表明对已知和规定的海表温度（SST）模式有很强的依赖性。这些差异大于自前工业化时期以来预计在气候变化下发生的差异。然而，这种前工业化以来的小差异特征是基于单一的大集合，其成员包括从前工业化到现在的一系列SST调整估计。这种SST变化来自于一套大气-海洋耦合（AOGCM）气候模式的预测。相反，当工业化前估计的集合被细分为模拟时，根据SST变化所基于的AOGCM，我们发现QRA发生的差异。这些差异表明，要可靠地估计与行星波放大率改变相关的极端变化，以及未来温室气体浓度升高，可能需要减少未来模拟SST模式的任何传播。
Summer weather extremes are often associated with high‐amplitude atmospheric planetary waves (Petoukhov et al., 2013). Such conditions lead to stationary weather patterns, triggering heat waves and sometimes prolonged intense rainfall. These wave events, referred to as periods of Quasi‐Resonant Amplification (QRA), are relatively rare though and hence provide only a few data points in the meteorological record to analyse. Here, we use atmospheric models coupled to boundary conditions that have evolved slowly (i.e., climate), to supplement measurements. Specifically we assess altered probabilities of resonant episodes by employing a unique massive ensemble of atmosphere‐only climate simulations to populate statistical distributions of event occurrence. We focus on amplified waves during the two most extreme European heat waves on record, in years 2003 and 2015 (Russo et al., 2015). These years are compared with other modelled recent years (1987–2011), and critically against a modelled world without climate change. We find that there are differences in the statistical characteristics of wave event likelihood between years, suggesting a strong dependence on the known and prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) patterns. The differences are larger than those projected to have occurred under climate change since the pre‐industrial period. However, this feature of small differences since pre‐industrial is based on single large ensembles, with members consisting of a range of estimates of SST adjustment from pre‐industrial to present. Such SST changes are from projections by a set of coupled atmosphere–ocean (AOGCM) climate models. When instead an ensemble for pre‐industrial estimates is subdivided into simulations according to which AOGCM the SST changes are based on, we find differences in QRA occurrence. These differences suggest that to reliably estimate changes to extremes associated with altered amplification of planetary waves, and under future raised greenhouse gas concentrations, likely requires reductions in any spread of future modelled SST patterns.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Mitchell, Daniel;Davini, Paolo;Allen, Myles
通讯作者：
Allen, Myles
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1412797111
发表时间：
2014-08-26
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Coumou, Dim;Petoukhov, Vladimir;Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
通讯作者：
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
影响因子：
13.6
作者：
Stadtherr L;Coumou D;Petoukhov V;Petri S;Rahmstorf S
通讯作者：
Rahmstorf S
利用GPS无线电掩星观测评估CMIP5对流层上层和平流层下层位势高度
DOI：
10.1002/2014jd022239
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Ao;J. Jiang;A. Mannucci;H. Su;O. Verkhoglyadova;C. Zhai;J. Cole;L. Donner;T. Iversen;C. Morcrette;L. Rotstayn;M. Watanabe;S. Yukimoto
通讯作者：
S. Yukimoto