Evaluating Linearly Interpolated Intercensal Estimates of Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of U.S. Counties and Census Tracts 2001-2009.
Evaluating Linearly Interpolated Intercensal Estimates of Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of U.S. Counties and Census Tracts 2001-2009.
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DOI：
10.1007/s11113-015-9359-8
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发表时间：
2015-08
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Shih RA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Weden MM;Peterson CE;Miles JN;Shih RA
美国社区调查（ACS）多年评估计划为研究美国社区人口和社会经济特征的变化提供了极大的机会。然而，对于研究人员来说，挑战仍然存在，他们研究的是ACS全面实施前的几年或小于ACS年度估计阈值的地区（即，小县城和人口普查区）。我们评估了美国各县和人口普查区的人口和社会经济特征的两次普查估计，这些县和人口普查区是通过2000年人口普查与2010年人口普查和2005-2009年ACS之间的线性插值产生的。内插估计值与来自人口估计程序、小地区收入和贫困估计值以及ACS的参考估计值之间的差异是使用几种误差测量来计算的。调查结果进行了讨论的潜在测量误差偏差的纵向估计线性插值邻域的变化，并讨论了替代普查间估计模型，包括那些可能更好地捕捉非线性趋势的经济条件在21世纪世纪。
The American Community Survey (ACS) multiyear estimation program has greatly advanced opportunities for studying change in the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of U.S. communities. Challenges remain, however, for researchers studying years prior to the full implementation of the ACS or areas smaller than the thresholds for ACS annual estimates (i.e., small counties and census tracts). We evaluate intercensal estimates of the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of U.S. counties and census tracts produced via linear interpolation between the 2000 census and both the 2010 census and 2005–2009 ACS. Discrepancies between interpolated estimates and reference estimates from the Population Estimates Program, the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates, and ACS are calculated using several measures of error. Findings are discussed in relation to the potential for measurement error to bias longitudinal estimates of linearly interpolated neighborhood change, and alternative intercensal estimation models are discussed, including those that may better capture non-linear trends in economic conditions over the 21st century.