European and US lockdowns and second waves during the COVID-19 pandemic.
European and US lockdowns and second waves during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108472
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发表时间：
2020-12
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Glass DH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Glass DH
本文调查了法国、德国、意大利、西班牙、英国和美国为遏制SARS-CoV-2冠状病毒传播而实施的封锁，以及自这些封锁放松以来的最新发展。分析采用了两阶段SEIR模型，在封锁前后具有不同的再生数。这些参数是根据每日确诊病例数量的数据估计的，该过程自动检测封锁生效的时间。该模型通过考虑其对当前数据的预测精度进行评估，然后扩展到三阶段版本以探索放松。结果显示了每个国家在多大程度上成功地减少了生育数量，并展示了该方法如何能够模拟所有六个国家最近病例数量的增加，包括美国的第二个高峰。结果还表明，所有五个欧洲国家目前的宽松水平可能会导致显著的第二波，持续时间比相应的第一波更长。虽然这些发现的影响在现阶段还不确定，但它们确实表明，需要保持高度警惕。
This paper investigates the lockdowns to contain the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US and also recent developments since these lockdowns have been relaxed. The analysis employs a two-stage SEIR model with different reproductive numbers pre- and post-lockdown. These parameters are estimated from data on the daily number of confirmed cases in a process that automatically detects the time at which the lockdown became effective. The model is evaluated by considering its predictive accuracy on current data and is then extended to a three-stage version to explore relaxations. The results show the extent to which each country was successful in reducing the reproductive number and demonstrate how the approach is able to model recent increases in the number of cases in all six countries, including the second peak in the US. The results also indicate that the current levels of relaxation in all five European countries could lead to significant second waves that last longer than the corresponding first waves. While there is uncertainty about the implications of these findings at this stage, they do suggest that a lot of vigilance is needed.
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影响因子：
82.9
作者：
He, Xi;Lau, Eric H. Y.;Leung, Gabriel M.
通讯作者：
Leung, Gabriel M.
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Eubank, S.;Eckstrand, I;Barrett, C. L.
通讯作者：
Barrett, C. L.
DOI：
10.1098/rspa.1927.0118
发表时间：
1927-08-01
期刊：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-CONTAINING PAPERS OF A MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL CHARACTER
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kermack, WO;McKendrick, AG
通讯作者：
McKendrick, AG
影响因子：
4
作者：
Ng, Kok Yew;Gui, Meei Mei
通讯作者：
Gui, Meei Mei
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Adrian Acuna-Zegarra, Manuel;Santana-Cibrian, Mario;Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge X.
通讯作者：
Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge X.