A risk assessment model of WSMC projects under emergencies
A risk assessment model of WSMC projects under emergencies
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突发事件下WSMC项目风险评估模型
DOI：
10.2166/ws.2021.339
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发表时间：
2021-10
期刊：
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Ran Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xiaosheng Wang;Wei Li;Haiying Guo;Ran Li
作为一种新型的市场化节水机制，节水管理合同项目面临着2019年冠状病毒病(新冠肺炎)大流行等突发事件造成的中断风险。基于投入产出理论，通过定量评价突发事件对用水户的影响，建立了水资源管理中心项目中断风险评估模型。首先，中断风险指数(IRI)的概念被定义为企业关闭持续时间(DES)的函数。其次，将突发事件的持续时间分为新冠肺炎事件和其他类型突发事件的持续时间两部分。第三，给出了风险容忍阈值来估计中断结果，并讨论了其不同的后果。最后，以武钢中国项目为例，对其中断风险进行了分析。结果表明，2020年和2021年WSMC的IRIS理论上都大于风险容忍阈值，较高的大流行预防标准和保守的大流行估计是造成上述结果的主要原因。本研究建立的模型为WSMC参与者应对突发事件提供了参考，为WSMC的推广提供了理论支撑。
As a novel market-based water-saving mechanism, the Water Saving Management Contract (WSMC) project faces interruption risk caused by emergencies like the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. An interruption risk assessment model of WSMC projects is established through a quantitative evaluation of the impact of emergencies on water users based on input-output theory. First, the concept of the interruption risk index (IRI) is defined as a function of the duration of enterprise shutdown (DES). Second, the DES is divided into two parts: the duration caused by COVID-19 and that under other types of emergencies. Third, the risk tolerance threshold is given to estimate the interruption result, and its different consequences are discussed. Finally, a WSMC project in China is taken as a case study, and its interruption risks are analysed. The results show that the IRIs of this WSMC in both 2020 and 2021 are theoretically greater than the risk tolerance thresholds, and the high pandemic prevention standards and conservative pandemic estimates are the main reasons for the above results. The model established in this study provides a reference for WSMC participants to deal with emergencies and provides the theoretical support for the extension of the WSMC.