Covid-19 lockdowns, income distribution, and food security: An analysis for South Africa
Covid-19 lockdowns, income distribution, and food security: An analysis for South Africa
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100410
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发表时间：
2020-09-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Anderson, Lillian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arndt, Channing;Davies, Rob;Anderson, Lillian
在没有疫苗和药物干预的情况下，缓解其人口影响的唯一工具是某种程度的物理距离，以通过切断社会和经济联系来减少传染。政策制定者必须在封锁等强有力的疏远措施对健康的积极影响与其经济成本之间取得平衡，尤其是对低收入和缺乏粮食保障的家庭造成的负担。南非采取的疏远措施造成了巨大的经济成本，并对收入的要素分配产生了负面影响。受教育程度低的劳动力比受过中等或高等教育教育的劳动力受到的影响更大。因此，受教育程度低、对劳动收入依赖程度高的家庭将经历巨大的实际收入冲击，这显然会危及这些家庭的粮食安全。然而，在南非，低收入家庭的总收入明显受到政府转移支付的影响。从公共卫生、收入分配和粮食安全的角度来看，新冠肺炎造成的非常迅速和严重的冲击表明，在发生‘黑天鹅’式的冲击时，制定支持弱势家庭的转移支付政策是有价值的。
Absent vaccines and pharmaceutical interventions, the only tool available to mitigate its demographic effects is some measure of physical distancing, to reduce contagion by breaking social and economic contacts. Policy makers must balance the positive health effects of strong distancing measures, such as lockdowns, against their economic costs, especially the burdens imposed on low income and food insecure households. The distancing measures deployed by South Africa impose large economic costs and have negative implications for the factor distribution of income. Labor with low education levels are much more strongly affected than labor with secondary or tertiary education. As a result, households with low levels of educational attainment and high dependence on labor income would experience an enormous real income shock that would clearly jeopardize the food security of these households. However, in South Africa, total incomes for low income households are significantly insulated by government transfer payments. From public health, income distribution and food security perspectives, the remarkably rapid and severe shocks imposed because of Covid-19 illustrate the value of having in place transfer policies that support vulnerable households in the event of 'black swan' type shocks.