Insights into projected changes in marine heatwaves from a high-resolution ocean circulation model
Insights into projected changes in marine heatwaves from a high-resolution ocean circulation model
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-18241-x
复制
发表时间：
2020-08-28
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Zhang, Xuebin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hayashida, Hakase;Matear, Richard J.;Zhang, Xuebin
全球气候模式预测，由于全球变暖，未来几十年海洋热浪会加剧。然而，这些模式的空间分辨率不足以解决在海洋热浪对社会和经济产生重大影响的边界流区域主导变率的中尺度过程。在这里，我们比较了0.1度海洋模型和23个较粗分辨率气候模型中海洋热浪的历史和预测变化。西部边界流是模型在模拟过去和未来的海洋热浪时与观测结果最不一致的区域。由于在粗分辨率模式中缺少涡流驱动的变率，导致历史时期的海洋热浪强度较低，而在未来几十年将加剧。虽然预估的变化在全球尺度上很一致，但高分辨率模式提供的西部边界流周围更大的空间细节可能对有效的适应规划有价值。
Global climate models project the intensification of marine heatwaves in coming decades due to global warming. However, the spatial resolution of these models is inadequate to resolve mesoscale processes that dominate variability in boundary current regions where societal and economic impacts of marine heatwaves are substantial. Here we compare the historical and projected changes in marine heatwaves in a 0.1 degrees ocean model with 23 coarser-resolution climate models. Western boundary currents are the regions where the models disagree the most with observations and among themselves in simulating marine heatwaves of the past and the future. The lack of eddy-driven variability in the coarse-resolution models results in less intense marine heatwaves over the historical period and greater intensification in the coming decades. Although the projected changes agree well at the global scale, the greater spatial details around western boundary currents provided by the high-resolution model may be valuable for effective adaptation planning.