Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy
Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy
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使用泰勒规则理解欧洲央行货币政策
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.489462
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Sturm
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Stephan Sauer;J. Sturm
近十年来，Taylor（1993）提出的简单工具政策规则已成为评价中央银行货币政策的常用工具。由于对欧洲央行过去行为的广泛实证分析似乎仍处于起步阶段，我们估计了欧洲央行的几种工具政策反应函数，这些函数可能会对最近欧元区的实际货币政策有所启示，并回答一些问题，如欧洲央行迄今为止是否实际遵循了稳定或不稳定的规则？看看当时的泰勒规则，现有的证据表明，欧洲央行正在适应通货膨胀的变化，因此遵循不稳定的政策。然而，这种印象似乎很大程度上是由于此类规范缺乏前瞻性。无论是假设理性预期并使用前瞻性规范，还是使用从调查中得出的预期，都会导致泰勒规则，这确实意味着欧洲央行的稳定作用。实时工业生产数据的使用似乎没有像美国那样发挥重要作用。
Over the last decade, the simple instrument policy rule developed by Taylor (1993) has become a popular tool for evaluating monetary policy of central banks. As an extensive empirical analysis of the ECB’s past behaviour still seems to be in its infancy, we estimate several instrument policy reaction functions for the ECB which might shed some light on actual monetary policy in the euro area in the recent past and answer questions like whether the ECB has actually followed a stabilising or a destabilising rule so far? Looking at contemporaneous Taylor rules, the presented evidence suggests that the ECB is accommodating changes in inflation and hence follows a destabilising policy. However, this impression seems to be largely due to the lack of a forward-looking perspective in such specifications. Either assuming rational expectations and using a forward-looking specification, or using expectations as derived from surveys result in Taylor rules which do imply a stabilising role of the ECB. The use of real-time industrial production data does not seem to play such a significant role as in the case of the U.S.