Global rise in human infectious disease outbreaks
Global rise in human infectious disease outbreaks
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2014.0950
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发表时间：
2014-12-06
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Ramachandran, Sohini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Smith, Katherine F.;Goldberg, Michael;Ramachandran, Sohini
为了描述全球传染病暴发频率随时间的变化，我们对一个新的33年数据集（1980-2013）进行了编码和分析，该数据集包含215种人类传染病的12102次暴发，其中包括219个国家发生的4400多万例病例。我们将这些记录与致病病原体的生态特征相结合，以研究疫情总数、疾病丰富度（独特疾病的数量）、疾病多样性（丰富度和疫情均匀度）和人均病例的全球时间趋势。细菌、病毒、人畜共患疾病（源于动物）和由病媒宿主传播的病原体引起的疾病是我们数据集中大部分疫情的原因。在控制了疾病监测、通信、地理和宿主可用性之后，我们发现自1980年以来爆发的总数和多样性以及致病疾病的丰富度显著增加（p < 0.0001）。当我们将互联网使用纳入模型以控制有偏见的疫情报告（从1990年开始）时，疫情总数和疾病丰富度仍随时间显著增加（p < 0.0001），但人均病例显著减少（p = 0.005）。根据致病病原体的分类、宿主要求和传播模式，暴发的时间趋势各不相同。我们在全球疾病出现和监测的背景下讨论我们的初步研究结果。
To characterize the change in frequency of infectious disease outbreaks over time worldwide, we encoded and analysed a novel 33-year dataset (1980-2013) of 12 102 outbreaks of 215 human infectious diseases, comprising more than 44 million cases occuring in 219 nations. We merged these records with ecological characteristics of the causal pathogens to examine global temporal trends in the total number of outbreaks, disease richness (number of unique diseases), disease diversity (richness and outbreak evenness) and per capita cases. Bacteria, viruses, zoonotic diseases (originating in animals) and those caused by pathogens transmitted by vector hosts were responsible for the majority of outbreaks in our dataset. After controlling for disease surveillance, communications, geography and host availability, we find the total number and diversity of outbreaks, and richness of causal diseases increased significantly since 1980 (p < 0.0001). When we incorporate Internet usage into the model to control for biased reporting of outbreaks (starting 1990), the overall number of outbreaks and disease richness still increase significantly with time (p < 0.0001), but per capita cases decrease significantly (p = 0.005). Temporal trends in outbreaks differ based on the causal pathogen's taxonomy, host requirements and transmission mode. We discuss our preliminary findings in the context of global disease emergence and surveillance.