Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world
Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78
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发表时间：
2018-05
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
J. Hosking;David A. MacLeod;Tony Phillips;C. Holmes;Peter A. G. Watson;Emily Shuckburgh;Daniel M. Mitchell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Hosking;David A. MacLeod;Tony Phillips;C. Holmes;Peter A. G. Watson;Emily Shuckburgh;Daniel M. Mitchell
来自“半度额外变暖，预测和预计影响”（HAPPI）项目的全球气候模型模拟被用来评估未来全球气温比工业化前水平高出1.5 °C时欧洲风力发电将如何变化。比较最近的历史（2006-2015）和未来的1.5 °C强迫实验强调，气候模型表明大西洋急流向北移动，导致英国和北方的地面风显著增加（p < 0.01），南欧的地面风显著减少（p < 0.05）。我们使用一个风力涡轮机功率模型，将每日近地表（10米）风速转换为每日风力发电量，考虑到每日以下的变化，涡轮机的高度，以及由于输电和配电造成的功率损失。为了减少区域模型偏差，我们使用偏差校正的10米风速。我们看到欧洲大部分地区的发电潜力有所增加，其中英国的负荷系数增幅最大，约为4个百分点。在欧洲中部和北方的大部分地区，气候的变化都在增加，夏季的季节变化最大。以英国为例，我们发现，在1.5 °C强迫下，春季和秋季的风能生产将与目前的冬季高峰期一样富有成效。同样，夏季风将增加，使风力发电量达到目前春季和秋季的水平。我们的结论是，北方欧洲的风能潜力可能比以前假设的要大，即使在1.5 °C的世界变暖的情况下也可能增加。虽然南欧的风力资源有可能减少，但这些减少可能微不足道。
Global climate model simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project were used to assess how wind power generation over Europe would change in a future world where global temperatures reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Comparing recent historical (2006–2015) and future 1.5 °C forcing experiments highlights that the climate models demonstrate a northward shift in the Atlantic jet, leading to a significant (p < 0.01) increase in surface winds over the UK and Northern Europe and a significant (p < 0.05) reduction over Southern Europe. We use a wind turbine power model to transform daily near-surface (10 m) wind speeds into daily wind power output, accounting for sub-daily variability, the height of the turbine, and power losses due to transmission and distribution of electricity. To reduce regional model biases we use bias-corrected 10 m wind speeds. We see an increase in power generation potential over much of Europe, with the greatest increase in load factor over the UK of around four percentage points. Increases in variability are seen over much of central and northern Europe with the largest seasonal change in summer. Focusing on the UK, we find that wind energy production during spring and autumn under 1.5 °C forcing would become as productive as it is currently during the peak winter season. Similarly, summer winds would increase driving up wind generation to resemble levels currently seen in spring and autumn. We conclude that the potential for wind energy in Northern Europe may be greater than has been previously assumed, with likely increases even in a 1.5 °C warmer world. While there is the potential for Southern Europe to see a reduction in their wind resource, these decreases are likely to be negligible.