Inflation Persistence and Flexible Prices
Inflation Persistence and Flexible Prices
复制标题
通货膨胀持续性和灵活的价格
DOI：
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Dotsey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Bullard;Charles T. Carlstrom;M. Dotsey
理性预期模型与货币供应量规则无法提供通货膨胀的持续性后，货币增长从趋势的短暂偏离是由于价格水平的快速调整，预期的事件。宏观经济数据中持续的通货膨胀使许多经济学家认为，价格调整缓慢和/或预期不一定是理性的。美国数据中的通货膨胀持续性可以通过与通货膨胀和产出偏离趋势相关的向量自相关函数来表征。在向量自相关函数中，通货膨胀和产出都是高度持续的，并且通货膨胀和产出之间存在显著的正动态互相关。本文表明，一个灵活的价格一般均衡商业周期模型与货币和中央银行使用泰勒规则可以解释这些模式。没有粘性价格，也没有流动性效应。在一个时期内，代理人只有在观察到所有的冲击之后才能做出决策。货币政策规则将产出持续性转化为通货膨胀持续性，并在通货膨胀和产出之间建立正的交叉相关关系。
The inability of rational expectation models with money supply rules to deliver inflation persistence following a transitory deviation of money growth from trend is due to the rapid adjustment of the price level to expected events. The observation of persistent inflation in macroeconomic data leads many economists to believe that prices adjust sluggishly and/or expectations must not be rational. Inflation persistence in U.S. data can be characterized by a vector autocorrelation function relating inflation and deviations of output from trend. In the vector autocorrelation function both inflation and output are highly persistent and there are significant positive dynamic cross-correlations relating inflation and output. This paper shows that a flexible-price general equilibrium business cycle model with money and a central bank using a Taylor rule can account for these patterns. There are no sticky prices and no liquidity effects. Agents decisions in a period are taken only after all shocks are observed. The monetary policy rule transforms output persistence into inflation persistence and creates positive cross-correlations between inflation and output.