Climate Impacts in the Midwest
Climate Impacts in the Midwest
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中西部的气候影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Oa Us Epa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Oa Us Epa
气候影响（细节和引文在随后的页面）：预计到2085年，中西部的气温将上升4.5至9.5华氏度。预计到世纪中期，中西部每年将有5到30天的最高气温超过95华氏度。预计到世纪中期，中西部每年将减少0至25天，最低气温低于10华氏度。到世纪末，气候条件将增加中西部的火灾风险。预计中西部北方的年平均降水量将略有增加，但该地区的南半部可能会减少。到世纪中期，整个中西部每年降水量超过1英寸的天数将增加。大多数气候模型表明，到世纪末，中西部的冬季、春季和秋季降水量将增加，但夏季的预测则更加不确定。到2055年，中西部每年的无冰冻季节预计将增加18至26天。气候变化将放大中西部森林生态系统的许多现有压力源，如入侵物种、害虫和病原体以及干扰机制。在气候变化下，中西部的北方和北方树种的适宜栖息地通常会减少，而温带树种、草原、稀树草原和林地可能会在世纪末扩大。低多样性系统受到气候变化的风险更大。更能容忍干扰的系统在景观上下降的风险更小，破碎景观中的物种将有更少的机会迁移以应对气候变化。局限于特定环境的系统为应对气候变化而迁移的机会较少。
of Climate Impacts (details and citations on subsequent pages): Temperatures in the Midwest are projected to increase by 4.5 to 9.5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2085. The Midwest is expected to experience between 5 and 30 more days per year with a maximum temperature exceeding 95 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the century. The Midwest is expected to experience between 0 and 25 fewer days per year with a minimum temperature below 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of the century. Climate conditions will increase fire risks in in the Midwest by the end of the century. Average annual precipitation is projected to increase slightly in northern portion of the Midwest, but may decrease in the southern half of the region. The number of days per year with more than 1 inch of precipitation will increase across the Midwest by the middle of the century. A majority of climate models suggest that precipitation in the Midwest will increase in the winter, spring, and fall by the end of the century, but summer projections are more uncertain. The annual freeze-free season is expected to increase by 18 to 26 days in the Midwest by 2055. Climate change will amplify many existing stressors to forest ecosystems in the Midwest, such as invasive species, insect pests and pathogens, and disturbance regimes. Boreal and northern tree species in the Midwest are generally expected to decline in suitable habitat under climate change, while temperate tree species, grasslands, savannas, and woodlands may expand by the end of the century. Low-diversity systems are at greater risk from climate change. Systems that are more tolerant of disturbance have less risk of declining on the landscape Species in fragmented landscapes will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change. Systems that are limited to particular environments will have less opportunity to migrate in response to climate change.