SPEAR: The Next Generation GFDL Modeling System for Seasonal to Multidecadal Prediction and Projection
SPEAR: The Next Generation GFDL Modeling System for Seasonal to Multidecadal Prediction and Projection
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DOI：
10.1029/2019ms001895
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发表时间：
2020-03-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Zhao, Ming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Delworth, Thomas L.;Cooke, William F.;Zhao, Ming
我们记录下一代模拟系统的发展和模拟特征，季节性到十年期的预测和预测在地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）。SPALF（Seamless System for Prediction and EArthSystem Research）是由GFDL最近开发的AM4大气模式、MOM6海洋模式、LM4陆地模式和SIS2海冰模式组成的。SPRECT模型是专门设计的，具有季节到十年时间尺度预测模型所需的属性，包括利用可用计算资源运行大型模拟集合的能力。为了提高计算速度，SPARCHES使用了大约1.0度的海洋分辨率（带热带细化）。SPECTRA可以使用不同的大气水平分辨率，范围从1度到0.25度。更高的大气分辨率有助于改进对区域气候和极端情况的模拟。SPF4是由与GFDL CM4和ESM 4模式相同的组件构建的，但其设计选择面向季节到多年代物理气候预测和投影。我们记录的时间平均气候，内部变率方面的模拟特征，以及对理想化和现实的辐射强迫变化的响应。我们更详细地描述了模型开发过程的一个焦点，该焦点的动机是南大洋对全球气候系统的重要性。我们目前的敏感性测试，记录南极表面热收支对南大洋通风和深层全球海洋环流的影响。这些发现也是有用的GFDL CM4和ESM 4 models.Plain语言摘要在本文中，我们描述了一个新的气候模式，将用于季节到几十年的气候预测和投影的发展和模拟的特点。该模型结合了一组新开发的组件，模拟海洋，大气，陆地和海冰。我们通过评估其在模拟当前气候方面的性能以及通过显示模型对20世纪和21世纪温室气体和气溶胶变化的响应来记录该模型。我们还展示了一组敏感性实验的结果，这些实验是模型开发过程的重要组成部分。这些敏感性测试探索南极洲表面能量平衡与深海环流之间的联系。
We document the development and simulation characteristics of the next generation modeling system for seasonal to decadal prediction and projection at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). SPEAR (Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research) is built from component models recently developed at GFDL-the AM4 atmosphere model, MOM6 ocean code, LM4 land model, and SIS2 sea ice model. The SPEAR models are specifically designed with attributes needed for a prediction model for seasonal to decadal time scales, including the ability to run large ensembles of simulations with available computational resources. For computational speed SPEAR uses a coarse ocean resolution of approximately 1.0 degrees (with tropical refinement). SPEAR can use differing atmospheric horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 degrees to 0.25 degrees. The higher atmospheric resolution facilitates improved simulation of regional climate and extremes. SPEAR is built from the same components as the GFDL CM4 and ESM4 models but with design choices geared toward seasonal to multidecadal physical climate prediction and projection. We document simulation characteristics for the time mean climate, aspects of internal variability, and the response to both idealized and realistic radiative forcing change. We describe in greater detail one focus of the model development process that was motivated by the importance of the Southern Ocean to the global climate system. We present sensitivity tests that document the influence of the Antarctic surface heat budget on Southern Ocean ventilation and deep global ocean circulation. These findings were also useful in the development processes for the GFDL CM4 and ESM4 models.Plain Language Summary In this paper we describe the development and simulation characteristics of a new climate model that will be used for seasonal to multidecadal climate prediction and projection. The model combines a set of newly developed components that simulate the ocean, atmosphere, land, and sea ice. We document this model by assessing its performance in simulating the current climate and by showing the model's response to changing greenhouse gases and aerosols over the 20th and 21st centuries. We also show results from a set of sensitivity experiments that were an important part of the model development process. These sensitivity tests explore connections between the surface energy balance over Antarctica and the circulation of the deep ocean.