Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies
Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies
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DOI：
10.1257/pol.20170046
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发表时间：
2018-08-01
影响因子：
5.3
通讯作者：
Nordhaus, William
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nordhaus, William
气候变化仍然是各国面临的主要国际环境挑战之一。到目前为止，各国采取的减缓气候变化的政策很少。此外，根据最新数据，排放趋势没有出现重大改善。目前的研究使用更新的DICE模型来对备选气候政策的趋势和影响进行新的预测。它还对未来气候变化的不确定性提出了一套新的估计，并将结果与其他综合评估模式的结果进行了比较。该研究证实了过去的估计，即如果不采取重大的气候变化政策，下个世纪可能会出现快速的气候变化。它表明，即使在短期内出台雄心勃勃的政策，各国也不太可能实现国际协议规定的2摄氏度的目标。由于政策的延迟，实现当前目标所需的碳价格随着时间的推移而上升。
Climate change remains one of the major international environmental challenges facing nations. Up to now, nations have adopted minimal policies to slow climate change. Moreover, there has been no major improvement in emissions trends as of the latest data. The current study uses the updated DICE model to develop new projections of trends and impacts of alternative climate policies. It also presents a new set of estimates of the uncertainties about future climate change and compares the results with those of other integrated assessment models. The study confirms past estimates of likely rapid climate change over the next century if major climate-change policies are not taken. It suggests that it is unlikely that nations can achieve the 2 degrees C target of international agreements, even if ambitious policies are introduced in the near term. The required carbon price needed to achieve current targets has risen over time as policies have been delayed.