Flood modelling : Parameterisation and inflow uncertainty
Flood modelling : Parameterisation and inflow uncertainty
复制标题
洪水建模：参数化和流入不确定性
DOI：
10.1680/wama.12.00087
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Solomatine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Mukolwe;G. Baldassarre;M. Werner;D. Solomatine
本文对洪水水力模型中的不确定性进行了分析，重点讨论了由入流误差和参数不确定性引起的不准确性。特别是，该研究开发了一种方法来传播不确定性，首先，应用阶段流量额定值曲线，其次，通过幂函数和曼宁粗糙度系数的调节对一维水力模型进行参数化。所提出的方法应用于意大利波河的98公里河段。在广义似然不确定性估计框架内，使用两组独立的观察到的河段水位来评估模型的性能。发现流入不确定性对一维模型总体不确定性的贡献大于粗糙度参数。独立参数的调节和验证以及不确定性分析表明，模型具有满意的性能。当以一个洪水事件为条件时，模型充分模拟了另一个（独立）事件的洪水水位和高水位，因为观测值在模拟集合的90%置信区间内。
This paper presents an analysis of uncertainty in hydraulic modelling of floods, focusing on the inaccuracy caused by inflow errors and parameter uncertainty. In particular, the study develops a method to propagate the uncertainty induced by, firstly, application of a stage–discharge rating curve and, secondly, parameterisation of a onedimensional hydraulic model by way of the power function and the conditioning of Manning’s roughness coefficients. The proposed methodology was applied to a 98 km reach of the River Po, Italy. Model performance was evaluated using two independent sets of observed water levels in the river reach within a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation framework. The inflow uncertainty was found to have a greater contribution to the overall uncertainty of the 1D model than the roughness parameters. Independent parameter conditioning and validation, as well as the uncertainty analysis, showed satisfactory model performance. When conditioned on one flood event, the model adequately simulated flood levels and high water marks for another (independent) event, as the observations were within 90% confidence interval of the simulation ensemble.
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Di Baldassarre, Giuliano;Schumann, Guy;Bates, Paul
通讯作者：
Bates, Paul