Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes
Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes
复制标题
生物群落潜在火灾危险的历史时空变化
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161954
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Banerjee, Tirtha
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Baijnath-Rodino, Janine A.;Le, Phong V.V.;Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi;Banerjee, Tirtha
本研究 1) 确定了火灾危险潜力发生显着变化（1980-2019 年）的季节和生物群落，如加拿大火灾天气指数 (FWI) 所量化； 2) 探讨哪些类型的潜在火灾行为可能会导致潜在火灾危险的变化，如美国能量释放成分 (ERC) 和点火成分 (IC) 所量化的； 3) 提供关于潜在火灾危险和潜在火灾行为如何响应生物群落季节性降水总量和季节性平均气温变化的时空见解。这些火灾潜力的时间序列以及季节性平均温度和季节性降水总量是使用来自 0.25° ECMWF 空间分辨率第五代再分析 (ERA5) 和气候研究单元网格时间序列 (CRU TS) 的数据生成的。然后应用曼-肯德尔检验来识别每个生物群落的显着时空趋势。结果表明，9 月至 11 月季节 (SON) 的火灾危险潜力增幅最大，其次是 6 月至 8 月季节 (JJA)、12 月、1 月至 2 月季节 (DJF) 和 3 月至 5 月季节 (MAM)，这在热带和亚热带湿润阔叶森林生物群落以及温带生物群落的所有植被类型中最为显着。同样，温带生物群落的火灾强度潜力和着火潜力的增长速度最快，但在 DJF 和 MAM 季节普遍存在。此外，北美和欧洲的温带生物群落以及非洲的热带和亚热带生物群落的北半球JJA期间的火灾危险潜力与季节平均气温之间存在显着的正相关关系。我们的分析提供了关于潜在火灾危险和潜在火灾行为如何响应世界不同生态区季节性平均气温和季节性降水总量变化的定量见解。
This study 1) identifies the seasons and biomes that exhibit significant (1980–2019) changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI); 2) explores what types of fire behavior potentials may be contributing to changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the United States Energy Release Component (ERC) and the Ignition Component (IC); 3) provides spatiotemporal insight on how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential are responding in relation to changes in seasonal precipitation totals and seasonal mean air temperature across biomes. Time series of these fire potentials, as well as seasonal mean temperature, and seasonal precipitation totals are generated using data from the 0.25° ECMWF spatial resolution Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and the Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series (CRU TS). The Mann-Kendall test is then applied to identify significant spatiotemporal trends across each biome. Results indicate that the September–November season (SON) exhibits the greatest rate of increase in fire danger potential, followed by the June–August season (JJA), December, January–February season (DJF), and March–May season (MAM), and this is predominant over the Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Biome, as well as all vegetation types of the temperate biomes. Similarly, the temperate biomes experience the greatest rate of increase in fire intensity potential and ignition potential, but prevalent during the DJF and MAM seasons. Furthermore, there is a significant positive correlation between fire danger potential and seasonal mean air temperature during JJA in the Northern Hemisphere for the temperate biomes in North America and Europe, as well as the Tropical and Subtropical biomes in Africa. Our analysis provides quantitative insight as to how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential have been responding to changes in seasonal mean temperature and seasonal precipitation totals across different ecoregions around the world.