The unequal effects of the health-economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The unequal effects of the health-economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic.
复制标题
COVID-19 大流行期间健康与经济权衡的不平等影响。
DOI：
10.1038/s41562-023-01747-x
复制
发表时间：
2024
影响因子：
29.9
通讯作者：
Farmer,JDoyne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pangallo,Marco;Aleta,Alberto;DelRio-Chanona,RMaria;Pichler,Anton;Martín-Corral,David;Chinazzi,Matteo;Lafond,François;Ajelli,Marco;Moro,Esteban;Moreno,Yamir;Vespignani,Alessandro;Farmer,JDoyne
尽管2019年冠状病毒病大流行对全球产生了影响，但强制性干预措施是否具有与自发行为改变类似的经济和公共卫生影响的问题仍未得到解决。解决这个问题，并了解不同社会经济群体的差异影响，需要建立定量和细粒度的机制模型。在这里，我们介绍了一个数据驱动的、粒度的、基于代理的模型，该模型模拟了跨行业、职业和收入水平的流行病和经济结果。我们通过再现2019年纽约大都市区第一波冠状病毒病的关键结果来验证该模型。流行病与经济模块相结合的关键机制是由于担心感染而减少消费。在反事实实验中，我们发现，当个人由于害怕感染而改变行为时，以及当实施非药物干预时，流行病和经济结果之间存在类似的权衡。在面向客户的行业中从事面对面职业的低收入工人面临着最强烈的权衡。
Despite the global impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the question of whether mandated interventions have similar economic and public health effects as spontaneous behavioural change remains unresolved. Addressing this question, and understanding differential effects across socioeconomic groups, requires building quantitative and fine-grained mechanistic models. Here we introduce a data-driven, granular, agent-based model that simulates epidemic and economic outcomes across industries, occupations and income levels. We validate the model by reproducing key outcomes of the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 in the New York metropolitan area. The key mechanism coupling the epidemic and economic modules is the reduction in consumption due to fear of infection. In counterfactual experiments, we show that a similar trade-off between epidemic and economic outcomes exists both when individuals change their behaviour due to fear of infection and when non-pharmaceutical interventions are imposed. Low-income workers, who perform in-person occupations in customer-facing industries, face the strongest trade-off.