Linking environment-productivity trade-offs and correlated uncertainties: Greenhouse gas emissions and crop productivity in paddy rice production systems
Linking environment-productivity trade-offs and correlated uncertainties: Greenhouse gas emissions and crop productivity in paddy rice production systems
复制标题
将环境与生产力的权衡和相关的不确定性联系起来：水稻生产系统中的温室气体排放和作物生产力
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.138
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Akiko Domoto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kiyotada Hayashi;Yoshifumi Nagumo;Akiko Domoto
在对农业生产系统的生命周期进行比较评估时，分析环境影响与作物生产力之间的权衡以及分析温室气体排放量和作物产量波动等农业特有的不确定性至关重要。但是，这两个问题通常是分开分析的。在本文中，我们提出了一个框架，链接权衡和不确定性分析，相关的不确定性集成到环境生产力权衡分析。我们比较了日本的三种水稻生产系统：使用由家禽粪便通过密闭堆肥技术制成的颗粒状氮浓缩有机肥料的系统（高氮系统），使用由家禽粪便通过露天堆肥技术制成的常规有机肥料的系统（低氮系统），以及使用化学复合肥料的系统（常规系统）。我们关注水稻种植中两个重要的不确定性来源-稻田甲烷排放和作物产量。我们发现了传统和高N系统和低N系统之间的权衡，以及传统和高N系统中正相关的不确定性的存在。我们的结论是，我们的框架是有效的，在推荐高N系统相比，低N系统，虽然前者的性能几乎是相同的传统系统。
In comparative life cycle assessments of agricultural production systems, analyses of both the trade-offs between environmental impacts and crop productivity and of the uncertainties specific to agriculture such as fluctuations in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and crop yields are crucial. However, these two issues are usually analyzed separately. In this paper, we present a framework to link trade-off and uncertainty analyses; correlated uncertainties are integrated into environment-productivity trade-off analyses. We compared three rice production systems in Japan: a system using a pelletized, nitrogen-concentrated organic fertilizer made from poultry manure using closed-air composting techniques (high-N system), a system using a conventional organic fertilizer made from poultry manure using open-air composting techniques (low-N system), and a system using a chemical compound fertilizer (conventional system). We focused on two important sources of uncertainties in paddy rice cultivation—methane emissions from paddy fields and crop yields. We found trade-offs between the conventional and high-N systems and the low-N system and the existence of positively correlated uncertainties in the conventional and high-N systems. We concluded that our framework is effective in recommending the high-N system compared with the low-N system, although the performance of the former is almost the same as the conventional system.