Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans
Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aaa6635
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发表时间：
2015-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Pandolfi, John M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Finnegan, Seth;Anderson, Sean C.;Pandolfi, John M.
海洋生物分类群受到人类活动的威胁，但对其灭绝脆弱性的了解有限。化石记录提供了丰富的信息，可以帮助预测生物的反应。我们发现，超过2300万年，分类成员和地理范围的大小始终解释了大部分的灭绝风险的变化，在六个主要的分类群体。我们评估内在的风险灭绝的风险预测古生物学校准模型在这些群体中的现代属。绘制这些属的地理分布图确定了具有高内在风险的动物群受到人类活动或气候变化强烈影响的沿海地区。这些地区不成比例地分布在热带地区，这增加了这些生态系统可能特别容易受到未来干旱影响的可能性。内在风险为考虑当前对海洋生物多样性的威胁提供了人类出现之前的基线。
Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity.