Population growth and collapse in a multiagent model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley
Population growth and collapse in a multiagent model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.092080799
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发表时间：
2002-05-14
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Parker, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Axtell, RL;Epstein, JM;Parker, M
从公元前约 1800 年到公元 1300 年左右，卡延塔·阿纳萨齐人 (Kayenta Anasazi) 居住在美国亚利桑那州东北部黑台地地区的长屋山谷 (Long House Valley)。这些人是科罗拉多高原现代普韦布洛文化的史前祖先。基于冲积地貌学、孢粉学和树木气候学的古环境研究可以准确定量重建潜在农业产量的年度波动（每公顷玉米公斤数）。公元 200 年至 1300 年阿纳萨齐农业群体的考古记录提供了有关千年社会文化停滞、变异、变化和适应的信息。我们报告了这个社会的多智能体计算模型，该模型紧密地再现了其实际历史的主要特征，包括人口潮起潮落、不断变化的空间定居模式以及最终的快速衰退。模型中的代理人是单一农业主义者，他们决定自己的田地和定居点的位置。营养需求限制生育能力。代理异质性很难进行数学建模，但事实证明，它对于模型的高保真度至关重要。
Long House Valley in the Black Mesa area of northeastern Arizona (U.S.) was inhabited by the Kayenta Anasazi from about 1800 before Christ to about anno Domini 1300. These people were prehistoric ancestors of the modern Pueblo cultures of the Colorado Plateau. Paleoenvironmental research based on alluvial geomorphology, palynology, and dendroclimatology permits accurate quantitative reconstruction of annual fluctuations in potential agricultural production (kg of maize per hectare). The archaeological record of Anasazi farming groups from anno Domini 200-1300 provides information on a millennium of sociocultural stasis, variability, change, and adaptation. We report on a multiagent computational model of this society that closely reproduces the main features of its actual history, including population ebb and flow, changing spatial settlement patterns, and eventual rapid decline. The agents in the model are monoagriculturalists, who decide both where to situate their fields as well as the location of their settlements. Nutritional needs constrain fertility. Agent heterogeneity, difficult to model mathematically, is demonstrated to be crucial to the high fidelity of the model.