Yarkovsky detection opportunities. I. Solitary asteroids
Yarkovsky detection opportunities. I. Solitary asteroids
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DOI：
10.1016/j.icarus.2004.08.002
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
D. Vokrouhlický;D. Čapek;S. Chesley;S. Ostro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Vokrouhlický;D. Čapek;S. Chesley;S. Ostro
我们表明，在未来的二十年中，目前的雷达和光学天体测量技术是足够的，允许检测Yarkovsky效应作用于至少二十多个近地小行星从各种轨道制度和有效直径范围从约10米到几公里。Yarkovsky效应可能会在更罕见的光谱类型X，C和E以及更常见的S和Q的对象中被检测到。下一个预测的雅科夫斯基效应的探测是在2004年10月的4179 Toutatis，这也是第一个多公里的情况。小行星25143 Itokawa可能在2005年底被探测到，由于预计Hayabusa航天器将对小行星质量和表面热惯性进行独立的“地面实况”测量，因此可以提供一次重要的测试。地球共轨小行星（例如，2000 PH5或2003 YN 107）是快速测定雅科夫斯基效应的最佳位置，发现该天体和检测到雅科夫斯基效应之间的时间跨度可能短至3年。到2012年，潜在的地球撞击物（29075）1950 DA的运动可能会揭示雅科夫斯基效应的大小，这反过来又会确定两个可能的磁极方向中哪一个是正确的。维斯2880年的影响，这些新信息将使长期预测的质量得到实质性的改善。
We show that, over the next two decades, the current radar and optical astrometric technology is adequate to allow detection of the Yarkovsky effect acting on at least two dozen NEAs from a variety of orbital regimes and with effective diameters ranging from about ten meters up to several kilometers. The Yarkovsky effect will likely be detected for objects of rarer spectral types X, C, and E, as well as the more common S and Q. The next predicted detection of the Yarkovsky effect is for 4179 Toutatis in October 2004, which would be also the first multi-kilometer case. The Asteroid 25143 Itokawa, with a likely detection at the end of 2005, could offer an important test due to the independent “ground-truth” measurements of the asteroid mass and surface thermal inertia expected from the Hayabusa spacecraft. Earth co-orbital asteroids (e.g., 2000 PH5 or 2003 YN107) are the best placed for rapid determination of the Yarkovsky effect, and the timespan between discovery of the object and detection of the Yarkovsky effect may be as short as 3 years. By 2012, the motion of potential Earth impactor (29075) 1950 DA will likely reveal the magnitude of the Yarkovsky effect, which in turn will identify which of two possible pole orientations is correct. Vis-a-vis the 2880 impact, this new information will allow a substantial improvement in the quality of long term predictions.