The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP): Measurements and Modeling to Reduce Uncertainty-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.1175/bams-d-15-00317.1

发表时间：

2017-10

期刊：

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

影响因子：

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

地球科学1区

文献类型：

作者：

C. Reddington;K. Carslaw;P. Stier;N. Schutgens;H. Coe;Dantong Liu;J. Allan;J. Browse;K. Pringle;L. Lee;M. Yoshioka;Jill S. Johnson;L. Regayre;D. Spracklen;G. Mann;A. Clarke;M. Hermann;S. Henning;H. Wex;T. Kristensen;W. Leaitch;U. Pöschl;D. Rose;M. Andreae;J. Schmale;Y. Kondo;N. Oshima;J. Schwarz;A. Nenes;B. Anderson;Gregory Charles Roberts;J. Snider;C. Leck;P. Quinn;X. Chi;A. Ding;J. Jimenez;Qi Zhang

气候历史辐射强迫中最大的不确定性是由人类活动引起的气溶胶颗粒的变化引起的。复杂的气溶胶微物理过程已被纳入许多气候模型中，以减少不确定性。然而，这些模型的评估和约束非常具有挑战性，因为它们需要对颗粒尺寸分布、数量浓度和化学成分进行广泛的现场测量，而全球卫星观测无法提供这些测量。全球气溶胶合成和科学项目（GASSP）旨在通过结合量化模型不确定性的新方法、气溶胶原位微物理和化学测量的广泛全球数据集以及评估与稀疏点测量与低分辨率模型进行比较相关的不确定性的新方法，提高全球气溶胶模型的稳健性。 GASSP 收集了超过 45,000 个小时的船舶和飞机测量数据以及来自 350 多个地面站的数据。测量结果已统一为标准化格式，可供建模者和非专业用户轻松使用。现有的测量范围很广，但它们偏向于北半球的污染地区，导致大片原始地区和许多大陆地区的采样率很低。使用严格的模型数据合成方法可以减少气溶胶辐射强迫的不确定性。尽管如此，我们的研究强调了仍然存在的重大挑战，因为同时限制许多相互交织的模型不确定性很困难。尽管全球气溶胶模型的物理真实性仍需提高，但通过使用广泛的测量综合系统地、严格地约束模型，将最有效地减少气溶胶辐射强迫的不确定性。

The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by changes in aerosol particles due to anthropogenic activity. Sophisticated aerosol microphysics processes have been included in many climate models in an effort to reduce the uncertainty. However, the models are very challenging to evaluate and constrain because they require extensive in-situ measurements of the particle size distribution, number concentration and chemical composition that are not available from global satellite observations. The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP) aims to improve the robustness of global aerosol models by combining new methodologies for quantifying model uncertainty, an extensive global dataset of aerosol in-situ microphysical and chemical measurements, and new ways to assess the uncertainty associated with comparing sparse point measurements with low resolution models. GASSP has assembled over 45,000 hours of measurements from ships and aircraft as well as data from over 350 ground stations. The measurements have been harmonized into a standardized format that is easily used by modellers and non-specialist users. Available measurements are extensive, but they biased to polluted regions of the northern hemisphere, leaving large pristine regions and many continental areas poorly sampled. The aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty can be reduced using a rigorous model-data synthesis approach. Nevertheless, our research highlights significant remaining challenges because of the difficulty of constraining many interwoven model uncertainties simultaneously. Although the physical realism of global aerosol models still needs to be improved, the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing will be reduced most effectively by systematically and rigorously constraining the models using extensive syntheses of measurements.

The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP): Measurements and Modeling to Reduce Uncertainty

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