The Red Queen revisited: reevaluating the age selectivity of Phanerozoic marine genus extinctions
The Red Queen revisited: reevaluating the age selectivity of Phanerozoic marine genus extinctions
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DOI：
10.1666/07008.1
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发表时间：
2008-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Wang, Steve C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Finnegan, Seth;Payne, Jonathan L.;Wang, Steve C.
灭绝的风险是负相关的属年龄（自第一次出现的时间）在大多数时间间隔的中生代海洋化石记录，在明显的矛盾，宏观进化的红皇后假说，假定灭绝的风险是独立的分类年龄。已调用的平均物种丰富度和属的地理范围的依赖性增加，以调和这一属级的观察与假定的流行红皇后动态在物种水平。在这里，我们用古生物学数据库的数据来检验这些解释。多元Logistic回归表明，物种丰富度或地理范围不能充分解释灭绝风险与属年龄的关联：即使考虑范围和丰富度效应，年龄与灭绝风险之间仍存在残余关联。在整个中生代的大部分时间里，年龄选择性梯度在最年轻的年龄组中最高，而在年龄较大的年龄组中，年龄与灭绝风险之间没有关联。一些明显的年龄选择性灭绝的全球动物群是由于灭绝率的差异，分类组之间，但灭绝的风险下降，属的年龄，即使在大多数分类的目的。这一模式的显著例外包括寒武纪-奥陶纪、二叠纪末、三叠纪和古新世的间隔。年龄与灭绝风险的关联可能更多地反映了采样异质性或分类实践，而不是生物学现实，但目前很难评估或纠正这种偏差。或者，该模式可能反映了一致的灭绝选择性的一些尚未确定的属年龄的协变量。虽然后者的解释是不兼容的红皇后模型，如果大多数属的灭绝是由于生物相互作用，它可能是适用的，如果大多数属的灭绝，而不是由经常性的物理干扰，反复施加类似的选择压力。
Extinction risk is inversely related to genus age (time since first appearance) in most intervals of the Phanerozoic marine fossil record, in apparent contradiction to the macroevolutionary Red Queen's Hypothesis, which posits that extinction risk is independent of taxon age. Agedependent increases in the mean species richness and geographic range of genera have been invoked to reconcile this genus-level observation with the presumed prevalence of Red Queen dynamics at the species level. Here we test these explanations with data from the Paleobiology Database. Multiple logistic regression demonstrates that the association of extinction risk with genus age is not adequately explained by species richness or geographic range: there is a residual association between age and extinction risk even when range and richness effects are accounted for. Throughout most of the Phanerozoic the age selectivity gradient is highest among the youngest age cohorts, whereas there is no association between age and extinction risk among older age cohorts. Some of the apparent age selectivity of extinction in the global fauna is attributable to differences in extinction rate among taxonomic groups, but extinction risk declines with genus age even within most taxonomic orders. Notable exceptions to this pattern include the Cambrian-Ordovician, latest Permian, Triassic, and Paleocene intervals. The association of age with extinction risk could reflect sampling heterogeneity or taxonomic practice more than biological reality, but at present it is difficult to evaluate or correct for such biases. Alternatively, the pattern may reflect consistent extinction selectivity on some as-yet unidentified covariate of genus age. Although this latter explanation is not compatible with a Red Queen model if most genus extinctions have resulted from biological interactions, it may be applicable if most genus extinctions have instead been caused by recurrent physical disturbances that repeatedly impose similar selective pressures.