Decision support system for water pipeline renewal prioritisation
Decision support system for water pipeline renewal prioritisation
复制标题
供水管道更新优先级决策支持系统
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2006
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
S. Meddings
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Moglia;S. Burn;S. Meddings
许多水务公司面临着管网老化和相关成本增加的问题。为了应对这一挑战，世界各地在改善管道资产管理实践方面做出了相当大的努力。在数据收集和数据管理做法、包括故障预测模型在内的风险管理以及决策支助系统领域都取得了进展。决策支持系统（如PARMS-PLANNING）支持与管道更换决策相关的长期规划和预算设置。为了补充这些系统概述，开发了PARMS-PRIORITY，以支持管道更新优先级，这涉及到对不同活动的分析评估，例如管道更换和减压的相关风险。本文描述了这种优先级模型，包括方法的发展，计算模块，输入数据和输出。这些模块基于关键任务：风险计算、故障预测、成本评估、数据探索和情景评估。该模型使用标准风险方法中的资产和故障记录数据。新奇和创新性在于在特定背景下应用特定模型，因此，首先应根据模型对决策者的有用程度来判断模型。PARMS-PRIORITY目前正在两个水务公司试用，初步反馈良好。对该工具的评估按其性质正在进行。
Many Water Utilities are faced with the problem of ageing pipe networks and the associated increasing costs. In response to this challenge there has been considerable effort around the world on improving practices of pipeline asset management. There has been progress in data collection and data management practices, in risk management including failure prediction models, as well as in the area of Decision Support Systems. Decision Support Systems, such as PARMS-PLANNING support long-term planning and budget settings in relation to pipeline replacement decisions. To complement these system overviews, PARMS-PRIORITY has been developed to support pipeline renewal prioritization, which involves the analytical assessment of different activities, such as pipeline replacement and pressure reduction in terms of their associated risks. Such a prioritisation model is described in this paper and includes the development of the methodology, the calculation modules, the input data, and outputs. The modules are based on key tasks: risk calculation, failure prediction, cost assessment, data exploration and scenario evaluation. The model uses asset and failure records data within a standard risk approach. The novelty and innovation lies in the application of the particular models within a specific context and the model should therefore in the first place be judged on how useful it is to decision makers. PARMS-PRIORITY is currently being trialled by two Water Utilities with initially good feedback. The assessment of the tool is by nature on going.