A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security
A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1919049117
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发表时间：
2020-03-31
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Rosenzweig, Cynthia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jaegermeyr, Jonas;Robock, Alan;Rosenzweig, Cynthia
印度和巴基斯坦之间的一场有限的核战争可能会点燃足够大的大火，向平流层排放超过5Tg的烟尘。气候模式模拟显示了严重的气候扰动，全球平均气温下降1.8摄氏度，降水量下降8%，至少持续5年。在这里，我们评估了对全球粮食系统的影响。六个协调的最新作物模型显示，全球玉米、小麦、水稻和大豆的卡路里产量在5年内分别下降了13(+/-1)%、11(+/-8)%、3(+/-5)%和17(+/-2)%。12(+/-4)%的总单年损失是历史上最大异常损失的四倍，超过了历史干旱和火山喷发造成的影响。较低的气温导致的损失大于降水和太阳辐射的变化，导致最强的影响在北纬30度的温带地区，包括美国、欧洲和中国，持续10-15年。综合粮食贸易网络分析表明，国内储备和全球贸易在很大程度上可以缓冲第一年的生产异常。然而，持续多年的损失将限制国内粮食供应，并蔓延到全球南方，特别是粮食不安全的国家。到第5年，全球玉米和小麦供应将减少13%，71个国家和地区的玉米和小麦供应将减少20%以上，这些国家的累积人口为13亿。鉴于南亚日益不稳定，这项研究表明，地区冲突使用
A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 degrees C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (+/- 1)%, 11 (+/- 8)%, 3 (+/- 5)%, and 17 (+/- 2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (+/- 4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30 degrees N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using