Capture-recapture analysis of all-cause mortality data in Bohol, Philippines
Capture-recapture analysis of all-cause mortality data in Bohol, Philippines
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DOI：
10.1186/1478-7954-9-9
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发表时间：
2011-04-17
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Riley, Ian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carter, Karen L.;Williams, Gail;Riley, Ian
背景：尽管死亡率数据对于有效规划和监测卫生服务很重要，但官方报告系统很少能捕捉到每一例死亡病例。采用系统回顾和捕获-再捕获分析的方法，对菲律宾博霍省6个直辖市的死亡报告的完整性及其对死亡率估计的影响进行了检查。方法：死亡报告收集自当地民事登记办公室、卫生中心和医院以及教区教堂的记录。使用一套特定的匹配标准对记录进行了核对，并进行了两个来源和三个来源的捕获-重新捕获分析。在两个来源的分析中，由于这些来源之间的相关性，将民事登记和健康数据结合在一起，并与教会数据进行对比分析。结果：民事登记和健康报告系统之间存在显著的相关性。2002年至2007年期间，研究区域记录了8,075例独特的死亡病例。我们发现，5%到10%的死亡病例没有报告给任何来源，而政府记录只记录了77%的死亡病例。男性和女性的出生时平均预期寿命(2002-2007年)估计分别为65.7岁和73.0岁。这比根据所有来源报告的死亡人数估计的预期寿命低一到两年，比仅根据民事登记数据估计的预期寿命低四到五年。报告模式因年龄和城市而异，儿童死亡比成人死亡更容易被漏报。婴儿死亡率在民事登记数据中被漏报了62%。结论：博霍尔的死亡人数被漏报，报告程序不一致导致了这种情况。如果将未经纠正的死亡率计量用于保健规划和评估，则会产生误导性。这些调查结果突出表明，必须确保菲律宾的官方死亡估计数是根据已评估为漏报并在必要时加以更正的数据得出的。
Background: Despite the importance of mortality data for effective planning and monitoring of health services, official reporting systems rarely capture every death. The completeness of death reporting and the subsequent effect on mortality estimates were examined in six municipalities of Bohol province in the Philippines using a system review and capture-recapture analysis.Methods: Reports of deaths were collected from records at local civil registration offices, health centers and hospitals, and parish churches. Records were reconciled using a specific set of matching criteria, and both a two-source and a three-source capture-recapture analysis was conducted. For the two-source analysis, civil registry and health data were combined due to dependence between these sources and analyzed against the church data.Results: Significant dependence between civil registration and health reporting systems was identified. There were 8,075 unique deaths recorded in the study area between 2002 and 2007. We found 5% to 10% of all deaths were not reported to any source, while government records captured only 77% of all deaths. Life expectancy at birth (averaged for 2002-2007) was estimated at 65.7 years and 73.0 years for males and females, respectively. This was one to two years lower than life expectancy estimated from reconciled reported deaths from all sources, and four to five years lower than life expectancy estimated from civil registration data alone. Reporting patterns varied by age and municipality, with childhood deaths more underreported than adult deaths. Infant mortality was underreported in civil registration data by 62%.Conclusions: Deaths are underreported in Bohol, with inconsistent reporting procedures contributing to this situation. Uncorrected mortality measures would subsequently be misleading if used for health planning and evaluation purposes. These findings highlight the importance of ensuring that official mortality estimates from the Philippines are derived from data that have been assessed for underreporting and corrected as necessary.