Climatic conditions cause complex patterns of covariation between demographic traits in a long-lived raptor
Climatic conditions cause complex patterns of covariation between demographic traits in a long-lived raptor
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DOI：
10.1111/1365-2656.12318
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发表时间：
2015-05-01
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Moller, Anders P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Herfindal, Ivar;van de Pol, Martijn;Moller, Anders P.
环境变化可以引起生命史的变化，这种变化可以持续生物体生命周期的大部分时间。如果多种人口特征受到影响，预期的气候变化可能以复杂的方式影响特征之间的环境协方差。因此，研究环境波动的后果需要获得多个生命阶段的个体信息，这在长寿物种中尤其具有挑战性。本文分析了雌苍鹰（Accipiter gentilis， L.）孵化年份气候条件的变化对种群特征和终生生殖成功率（LRS）的年龄特异性变化的影响。在孵化当年的4月份，LRS随着温度的升高而降低，这是由于繁殖频率降低和繁殖寿命缩短。相比之下，4月温暖年份雌性繁殖成功率较高，但后代LRS较低，导致代间繁殖率呈负协方差。气候条件产生群体效应的机制可能是通过影响特定年份种群繁殖部分的质量来实现的，因为繁殖期间饮食中鸽子的比例与年度和LRS呈正相关，并且在温暖年份孵化的成年雌性饮食中含有较少的鸽子。在个体生活史的不同阶段所经历的气候条件导致了人口特征之间复杂的环境协方差模式，甚至是跨代的。这种环境协方差可以缓冲或放大气候变化对种群增长的影响，强调在预测气候变化对长寿物种种群动态的影响时考虑个体完整生活史中的人口变化的重要性。
Environmental variation can induce life-history changes that can last over a large part of the lifetime of an organism. If multiple demographic traits are affected, expected changes in climate may influence environmental covariances among traits in a complex manner. Thus, examining the consequences of environmental fluctuations requires that individual information at multiple life stages is available, which is particularly challenging in long-lived species. Here, we analyse how variation in climatic conditions occurring in the year of hatching of female goshawks Accipiter gentilis (L.) affects age-specific variation in demographic traits and lifetime reproductive success (LRS). LRS decreased with increasing temperature in April in the year of hatching, due to lower breeding frequency and shorter reproductive life span. In contrast, the probability for a female to successfully breed was higher in years with a warm April, but lower LRS of the offspring in these years generated a negative covariance among fecundity rates among generations. The mechanism by which climatic conditions generated cohort effects was likely through influencing the quality of the breeding segment of the population in a given year, as the proportion of pigeons in the diet during the breeding period was positively related to annual and LRS, and the diet of adult females that hatched in warm years contained fewer pigeons. Climatic conditions experienced during different stages of individual life histories caused complex patterns of environmental covariance among demographic traits even across generations. Such environmental covariances may either buffer or amplify impacts of climate change on population growth, emphasizing the importance of considering demographic changes during the complete life history of individuals when predicting the effect of climatic change on population dynamics of long-lived species.