Who Shot the Bullets? Exposure to Violence and Attitudes Toward Peace: Evidence from the 2016 Colombian Referendum
Who Shot the Bullets? Exposure to Violence and Attitudes Toward Peace: Evidence from the 2016 Colombian Referendum
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子弹是谁射的？
DOI：
10.1017/lap.2020.14
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
J. Masullo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guillermo Kreiman;J. Masullo
接触暴力会影响对和平的态度吗？生活在战区的平民将和平协定视为改善其安全前景的机会。然而，在多方冲突中，这并不自动转化为对和平的支持。支持与否取决于哪一派过去曾使平民受害，哪一派现在坐在谈判桌旁。如果平民受到参与和平协定的团体的伤害，他们可能会支持和平。相反，如果他们受到另一派别的伤害，如果他们认为这会引发对他们的报复性暴力，他们就可能不支持和平。本文在哥伦比亚政府和哥伦比亚革命武装力量之间的2016年和平协议的背景下实证探讨了这一论点;定量和定性数据都支持研究的理论预期。
ABSTRACT Does exposure to violence affect attitudes toward peace? Civilians living in war zones see peace agreements as an opportunity to improve their security prospects. However, in multiparty conflicts, this does not automatically translate into support for peace. Support hinges on the interplay between which faction has victimized civilians in the past and which faction is sitting at the negotiation table. If civilians have been victimized by the group that is involved in the peace agreement, they will be likely to support peace. On the contrary, if they have been victimized by another faction, they will be likely to refrain from supporting peace if they believe that this can trigger retaliatory violence against them. This article explores this argument empirically in the context of the 2016 peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC; both quantitative and qualitative data yield support to the study’s theoretical expectations.