Extending the Lee-carter method to model the rotation of age patterns of mortality decline for long-term projections.
Extending the Lee-carter method to model the rotation of age patterns of mortality decline for long-term projections.
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DOI：
10.1007/s13524-013-0232-2
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发表时间：
2013-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Gerland P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li N;Lee R;Gerland P
在发达国家，死亡率下降速度在年轻时减慢，在老年时加快，我们称之为“轮换”。我们预计，随着发展中国家的预期寿命提高，也将出现这种轮换。但这种轮换是微妙的，在包括所有年龄组的死亡率模型中很难处理。然而，如果不考虑这一点，长期死亡率预测将产生令人怀疑的结果。在这里，我们通过关注0岁和15-19岁两个年龄段死亡率的相对大小来简化问题，同时假设其他年龄段的下降率变化。我们扩展的李-卡特方法，将这种微妙的旋转投影。我们认为，扩展的李-卡特方法可以提供合理的预测的年龄模式的死亡率的人口，目前有很高的预期寿命以及其他。使用日本和美国的数据给出了详细的例子。
In developed countries, mortality decline is decelerating at younger ages and accelerating at old ages, which we call a “rotation”. We expect that this rotation will also occur in developing countries as they attain high life expectancies. But the rotation is subtle and has proved difficult to handle in mortality models that include all age groups. Without taking it into account, however, long-term mortality projections will produce questionable results. Here we simplify the problem by focusing on the relative magnitude of death rates at two ages, 0 and 15–19, while making assumptions about changes in rates of decline at other ages. We extend the Lee-Carter method to incorporate this subtle rotation in projection. We suggest that the extended Lee-Carter method could provide plausible projections of the age pattern of mortality for populations that currently have very high life expectancies as well as others. Detailed examples are given using data from Japan and the US.