Performance of a Monthly Streamflow Prediction Model for Ungauged Watersheds in Spain
Performance of a Monthly Streamflow Prediction Model for Ungauged Watersheds in Spain
复制标题
西班牙未测量流域月度径流预测模型的性能
DOI：
10.1007/s11269-012-0102-5
复制
发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
A. I. García
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Vicente;Esperanza Ayuga;D. Otero;José L. Chávez;F. Ayuga;A. I. García
气候变化、干旱和世界人口增长正在增加对水的需求，这反过来又要求改善水资源管理。流域的可持续管理需要对其水资源，包括月流量有透彻的了解。西班牙境内有大量未测量的流域，其流量往往是未知的。Chavez等人（2007年）报告了一个用于预测未测量流域月流量的模型，该模型经验证可用于中美洲热带气候地区和南美洲干旱地区。这项工作报告的尝试，以评估该模型的性能，最终使用与未测量的流域在西班牙，使用的数据为一些流域的测量数据。该模型考虑了土壤渗透率、地形坡度、植被覆盖度、月水分充足指数和叶面积指数等物理特性。模型预测的月径流量与实际测量的月径流量的比较表明，查韦斯等人的模型无法以目前的形式对西班牙流域进行可靠的预测。一种新的方法已经开发，只考虑在西班牙条件下较小的流域，在原来的模型中改变参数。这些参数已被校准和验证，达到适当的调整结果。
Climate change, drought and the world’s growing population are increasing the demand for water which in turn requires improved water resources management. The sustainable management of a watershed requires a thorough knowledge of its water resources, including monthly streamflow. Spain is home to a large number of ungauged watersheds, the streamflows of which are often unknown. Chavez et al. (2007) reported a model for predicting monthly streamflow in ungauged watersheds that was validated for use in areas of tropical climate in Central America and a dry area in South America. This work reports an attempt to assess the performance of this model for eventual use with ungauged watersheds in Spain, using data for a number of watersheds for which gauging data were available. The proposed model took into account physical characteristics such us the soil infiltration rate, the slope of the terrain, plant fractional cover, the monthly moisture adequacy index, and the leaf area index. Comparisons of model-predicted monthly streamflows and those actually measured showed the Chavez et al. model unable to make reliable predictions for Spanish watersheds in its current form. A new approach has been developed considering only smaller watersheds in Spanish conditions, changing parameters in the original model. These parameters have been calibrated and validated, reaching adequate adjustment of results.