Global modeling of nature's contributions to people
Global modeling of nature's contributions to people
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aaw3372
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发表时间：
2019-10-11
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Daily, Gretchen C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca;Sharp, Richard P.;Daily, Gretchen C.
全球变化的幅度和速度要求迅速评估自然及其对人类的贡献。我们提出了一个精细尺度的全球现状和未来情景模型，包括水质调节、沿海风险降低和作物授粉。我们发现，在人们对自然需求最大的地方，自然满足这些需求的能力正在下降。在土地利用和气候变化的未来情景下，特别是在非洲和南亚，多达50亿人面临更严重的水污染和营养授粉不足。在非洲、欧亚大陆和美洲，数以亿计的人面临着更大的沿海风险。自然的持续丧失构成严重威胁，但在可持续发展情景下，这些威胁可以减少3至10倍。
The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people's needs for nature are now greatest, nature's ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.