High sensitivity to the initial condition for the prediction of stratospheric sudden warming
High sensitivity to the initial condition for the prediction of stratospheric sudden warming
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DOI：
10.1029/2005gl022909
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发表时间：
2005-09
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
H. Mukougawa;H. Sakai;T. Hirooka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Mukougawa;H. Sakai;T. Hirooka
利用日本气象厅(JMA)进行的1个月预报的所有集合成员，研究了2001年12月发生的纬向波数(WN)1平流层突然变暖(SSW)事件的可预报性和可能的对流层前兆。SSW至少可以提前2周预报，并且在SSW爆发期间对预报的初始条件有很高的敏感性。在此期间，沿80°N/60°N的对流层上层偶极子纬向风异常模式通过偏转WN1传播极，与随后极地平流层地区变暖有显著关系。预报的爆发期间集合成员之间纬向平均纬向风变化的领先EOF也显示出类似的廓线。因此，这一符合将是在SSW发生期间观察到的对初始条件高度敏感的原因。
Predictability and a possible tropospheric precursor of a zonal‐wavenumber (WN) 1 stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event occurring in December 2001 are examined using all ensemble members of the 1‐month forecasts carried out by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The SSW is predictable from at least 2 weeks in advance, and high sensitivity to the initial condition for the SSW prediction is observed during the onset period of the SSW. Dipole zonal wind anomaly pattern along 80°N/60°N in the upper troposphere during this period is significantly related to the subsequent warming in polar stratospheric regions through deflecting the WN 1 propagation poleward. The leading EOF of predicted zonal‐mean zonal wind variations among ensemble members for the onset period also shows the similar profile. Thus, this coincidence would be responsible for the high sensitivity to the initial condition observed during the onset period of the SSW.