Should We Care?: The Economic Effects of Financial Sanctions on the Russian Economy
Should We Care?: The Economic Effects of Financial Sanctions on the Russian Economy
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我们应该关心吗？：金融制裁对俄罗斯经济的经济影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Mamonov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Pestova;M. Mamonov
我们使用贝叶斯VAR模型来估计2014年西方实施的金融制裁对俄罗斯经济的经济影响。制裁导致未偿还的俄罗斯企业外债减少，但它发生在油价下跌的一段时期。我们通过计算仅以油价下跌、油价下跌和外债去杠杆化为条件的俄罗斯关键宏观经济变量的样本外预测，来区分制裁和油价的影响。油价下跌本身并不能解释俄罗斯经济危机的深度，但如果加上外债去杠杆化的实际路径，我们会得到相当准确的有条件预测。我们将这两种预测之间的差异视为对俄罗斯制裁的影响。对于讨论的大多数变量来说，影响并不大，但也很重要。尽管我们对制裁对GDP增长影响的估计存在很大的不确定性，但超过三分之二的密度位于负值区域。
We employ a Bayesian VAR model to estimate the economic effects on the Russian economy from Western financial sanctions imposed in 2014. Sanctions caused a decrease in the amount of out-standing Russian corporate external debt, but it occurred during an episode of falling oil prices. We disentangle the effects of sanctions and oil prices by computing out-of-sample projections of key Russian macroeconomic variables conditioned solely on the oil price drop and on both the oil price drop and external debt deleveraging. Declining oil prices alone do not explain the depth of economic crisis in Russia, but we get rather accurate conditional forecasts when the actual path of external debt deleveraging is added. We treat the difference between these two projections as the effect of sanctions against Russia. The effect is modest, yet significant, for most of the variables discussed. While our estimate of the impact of sanctions on GDP growth has large uncertainty, over two-thirds of the density lies in the negative area.