The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future
The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114016
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发表时间：
2015-11-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mankin, Justin S.;Viviroli, Daniel;Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
融雪径流被认为是整个北方（NH）人类和生态系统的重要水源。许多研究指出，全球变暖对积雪和融化的时间和规模构成威胁。但是，考虑到人类用水的次年度模式和降雨水的可用性，侧重于雪供应的分析并没有显示融雪径流的变化可能会带来最紧迫的适应挑战。我们确定NH流域，目前春季和夏季融雪有最大的潜力，以满足人类的用水需求，否则将无法满足瞬时降雨径流。使用气候变化预测的多模型集合，我们发现这些盆地目前人口总数接近20亿在未来的世纪，雪供应减少的风险为67%。此外，在多模型平均值中，68个流域（目前人口超过3亿）从有足够的降雨径流来满足所有目前的人类用水需求转变为降雨径流不足。然而，内部气候变异性在预测未来雪资源潜力的趋势中产生了不可减少的不确定性，约90%的雪敏感流域在近几十年内表现出增加或减少的潜力。我们的研究结果强调了雪对满足许多NH流域人类用水需求的重要性，并强调了在制定强有力的气候风险管理决策时需要考虑到全方位的内部气候变化。
Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins-which together have a present population of similar to 2 billion people-are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of >300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.