US nuclear power: The vanishing low-carbon wedge
US nuclear power: The vanishing low-carbon wedge
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1804655115
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发表时间：
2018-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. G. Morgan;A. Abdulla;Michael J. Ford;M. Rath
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. G. Morgan;A. Abdulla;Michael J. Ford;M. Rath
核电有潜力为美国能源系统脱碳做出重大贡献。以目前的形式能否做到这一点是一个关键问题：美国现有的大型轻水反应堆面临着天然气价格低廉的经济压力，有些已经关闭。此外，由于其巨大的成本和复杂性，在未来几十年内似乎不太可能建造任何新的大型工厂。虽然先进的反应堆设计有时被认为是应对核电挑战的潜在解决方案，但我们对先进裂变企业的评估表明，美国的设计在本世纪中叶之前都不会商业化。这使得工厂制造的轻水小型模块化反应堆（SMR）成为未来几十年气候关键时期可能大规模部署的唯一选择。我们系统地研究了未来几十年国内市场如何发展以支持该行业，但在政策环境没有发生重大变化的情况下，无法提出令人信服的理由。实现能源系统的深度脱碳需要我们能够掌握的所有可用技术和策略的组合。出于完全可预测和可解决的原因，美国似乎将在未来几十年内几乎失去核电，从而失去可靠的低碳能源，这应该引起所有关心气候变化的人的深切关注。
Nuclear power holds the potential to make a significant contribution to decarbonizing the US energy system. Whether it could do so in its current form is a critical question: Existing large light water reactors in the United States are under economic pressure from low natural gas prices, and some have already closed. Moreover, because of their great cost and complexity, it appears most unlikely that any new large plants will be built over the next several decades. While advanced reactor designs are sometimes held up as a potential solution to nuclear power’s challenges, our assessment of the advanced fission enterprise suggests that no US design will be commercialized before midcentury. That leaves factory-manufactured, light water small modular reactors (SMRs) as the only option that might be deployed at significant scale in the climate-critical period of the next several decades. We have systematically investigated how a domestic market could develop to support that industry over the next several decades and, in the absence of a dramatic change in the policy environment, have been unable to make a convincing case. Achieving deep decarbonization of the energy system will require a portfolio of every available technology and strategy we can muster. It should be a source of profound concern for all who care about climate change that, for entirely predictable and resolvable reasons, the United States appears set to virtually lose nuclear power, and thus a wedge of reliable and low-carbon energy, over the next few decades.