Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century
Role of external factors in the evolution of the ozone layer and stratospheric circulation in 21st century
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-13-4697-2013
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发表时间：
2012-10
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
V. Zubov;E. Rozanov;T. Egorova;I. Karol;W. Schmutz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Zubov;E. Rozanov;T. Egorova;I. Karol;W. Schmutz
摘要。利用化学-气候模式（CCM） SOCOL模拟了21世纪以来主要人为因子对臭氧和平流层动力学变化的贡献。我们考虑了大气中温室气体（GHG）、臭氧消耗物质（ODS）和海面温度和海冰（SST/SI）的浓度作为主要人为因子。后者在这里被认为是一个独立的因素，因为大多数ccm规定了它的演变。我们分别考虑所有因素和共同考虑所有因素，对2000年、2050年和2100年进行了三组“时间片”数值实验。在21世纪上半叶，臭氧层柱臭氧总量的增加是由消耗臭氧层引起的，特别是在两个半球的中高纬度地区。在北半球热带和热带外区，海温/SI强迫在21世纪下半叶大气臭氧的演变中起着非常重要的作用。温室气体对南半球高纬度地区的温度和臭氧的影响主要集中在平流层上层和平流层下层。在北半球低空热带平流层，温度、纬向风和经向环流的长期变化主要受海温/SI控制。海温/SI对未来臭氧和环流变化的强烈贡献意味着不同CCM的结果之间的一些差异可能是由应用的海温/SI引起的，而不是由CCM的缺陷引起的。我们建议在规划未来的模型评估活动时考虑到这个问题。
Abstract. The chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOL has been used to evaluate the contributions of the main anthropogenic factors to the simulated changes of ozone and stratospheric dynamics during the 21st century. As the main anthropogenic factors we consider the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gases (GHG), ozone depleting substances (ODS) and sea surface temperature and sea ice (SST/SI). The latter is considered here as an independent factor because the majority of the CCMs prescribe its evolution. We have performed three sets of "time slice" numerical experiments for the years 2000, 2050, and 2100 taking into account all factors separately and all together. The total column ozone increase during the first half of the 21st century is caused by the ODS, especially in the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. In the tropics and the extra tropical region of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) the SST/SI forcing plays a very important role in the evolution of atmospheric ozone during the second half of the 21st century. The GHG affect the temperature and ozone mainly in the upper stratosphere and in the lower stratosphere of the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH). In the lower tropical stratosphere of the NH, the long-term changes of the temperature, zonal wind and the meridional circulation are controlled mainly by the SST/SI. The strong contribution of the SST/SI to the ozone and circulation changes in the future implies that some differences between the results by different CCMs could be caused by the applied SST/SI rather than by the CCM's deficiencies. We suggest taking this issue into account for the planning of the future model evaluation campaigns.