A Web-Based System for Bayesian Benchmark Dose Estimation.
A Web-Based System for Bayesian Benchmark Dose Estimation.
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp1289
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发表时间：
2018-01-11
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Shapiro AJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shao K;Shapiro AJ
基准剂量（BMD）建模是人类健康风险评估的重要一步，被用作确定风险评估出发点的默认方法。多个机构和组织已提出并倡导剂量反应评估的概率框架；因此，需要一种可靠的工具来提供 BMD 和剂量反应评估中其他重要量的分布估计。我们开发了一个用于贝叶斯 BMD (BBMD) 估算的在线系统，并将该软件的结果与美国环境保护局 (EPA) 的基准剂量软件 (BMDS) 进行比较。该系统建立在贝叶斯框架上，采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）采样进行模型参数估计和BMD计算，这使得BBMD系统与目前流行的BMD软件包有本质区别。除了估计二分数据和连续数据的传统 BMD 之外，所开发的系统还能够计算模型平均 BMD 估计值。从美国 EPA 综合风险信息系统 (IRIS) 数据库（和类似数据库）中提取的总共 518 个二分数据集和 108 个连续数据集被用作测试数据，以比较 BBMD 和 BMDS 计划的估计值。结果表明，BBMD 系统可能在许多方面优于 BMDS 程序，包括更少失败的 BMD 和 BMDL 计算和估计。 BBMD 系统是估算 BMD 的有用替代工具，具有基于最新研究的 BMD 分析附加功能。最重要的是，BBMD有潜力结合先验信息，使剂量反应模型更加可靠，并可以为剂量反应评估中的重要量提供分布估计，这极大地促进了当前概率风险评估的趋势。 https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1289
Benchmark dose (BMD) modeling is an important step in human health risk assessment and is used as the default approach to identify the point of departure for risk assessment. A probabilistic framework for dose–response assessment has been proposed and advocated by various institutions and organizations; therefore, a reliable tool is needed to provide distributional estimates for BMD and other important quantities in dose–response assessment. We developed an online system for Bayesian BMD (BBMD) estimation and compared results from this software with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Benchmark Dose Software (BMDS). The system is built on a Bayesian framework featuring the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for model parameter estimation and BMD calculation, which makes the BBMD system fundamentally different from the currently prevailing BMD software packages. In addition to estimating the traditional BMDs for dichotomous and continuous data, the developed system is also capable of computing model-averaged BMD estimates. A total of 518 dichotomous and 108 continuous data sets extracted from the U.S. EPA’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database (and similar databases) were used as testing data to compare the estimates from the BBMD and BMDS programs. The results suggest that the BBMD system may outperform the BMDS program in a number of aspects, including fewer failed BMD and BMDL calculations and estimates. The BBMD system is a useful alternative tool for estimating BMD with additional functionalities for BMD analysis based on most recent research. Most importantly, the BBMD has the potential to incorporate prior information to make dose–response modeling more reliable and can provide distributional estimates for important quantities in dose–response assessment, which greatly facilitates the current trend for probabilistic risk assessment. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1289
DOI：
10.1111/risa.12762
发表时间：
2017-11
期刊：
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
影响因子：
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作者：
Wheeler MW;Bailer AJ;Cole T;Park RM;Shao K
通讯作者：
Shao K