Stakeholder Expectations of Future Policy Implementation Compared to Formal Policy Trajectories: Scenarios for Agricultural Food Systems in the Mekong Delta
Stakeholder Expectations of Future Policy Implementation Compared to Formal Policy Trajectories: Scenarios for Agricultural Food Systems in the Mekong Delta
复制标题
DOI：
10.3390/su13105534
复制
发表时间：
2021-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Parsons, Daniel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hutton, Craig W.;Hensengerth, Oliver;Parsons, Daniel
制定协调一致的管理大型社会农业系统的政策，如越南南部的湄公河三角洲，有赖于在国家和地方范围内协调政策的制定、实施和执行。有效的决策与对社会农业系统进行战略管理的一致、广泛共享的愿景相联系。然而，当政策模棱两可，最糟糕的情况是相互矛盾时，长期管理和规划可能会因此受到影响。如果利益攸关方对社会农业系统的当前和未来状况有不同的看法，这些潜在的不利影响可能会加剧。在这里，我们使用了一种可转移的、基于情景的方法，该方法使用标准象限矩阵来探索预期和理想化的未来状态。我们的案例研究是湄公河三角洲。情景矩阵基于对政策文件、文献、利益攸关方参与和土地利用模型的分析得出的三角洲的两个关键战略选择(轴)。这些问题是：(I)未来谁来经营农业，农业企业还是现有的公社系统；(Ii)可持续发展将在多大程度上纳入生产。在一次讲习班会议上，利益攸关方确定农业企业将主导三角洲未来的农业生产，但明确表示关切的是，尽管政策主张相反，但可持续性可能因此而受到损害。因此，我们的研究强调了国家期望和区域视角之间的重要差距。我们的结果表明，强调农业企业发展的湄公河三角洲新发展计划(包括新的总体规划和新的五年社会经济发展计划)应采取解决可持续性问题的办法，以及更精简的政策制定和执行，考虑到省和国家两级利益攸关方的关切。
The development of a coherent and coordinated policy for the management of large socio-agricultural systems, such as the Mekong delta in southern Vietnam, is reliant on aligning the development, delivery, and implementation of policy on national to local scales. Effective decision making is linked to a coherent, broadly-shared vision of the strategic management of socio-agricultural systems. However, when policies are ambiguous, and at worst contradictory, long-term management and planning can consequently suffer. These potential adverse impacts may be compounded if stakeholders have divergent visions of the current and future states of socio-agricultural systems. Herein we used a transferable, scenario-based methodology which uses a standard quadrant matrix in order to explore both anticipated and idealized future states. Our case study was the Mekong delta. The scenario matrix was based upon two key strategic choices (axis) for the delta, derived from analysis of policy documents, literature, stakeholder engagement, and land use models. These are: (i) who will run agriculture in the future, agri-business or the established commune system; and (ii) to what degree sustainability will be incorporated into production. During a workshop meeting, stakeholders identified that agri-business will dominate future agricultural production in the delta but showed a clear concern that sustainability might consequently be undermined despite policy claims of the contrary. As such, our study highlights an important gap between national expectations and regional perspectives. Our results suggest that the new development plans for the Mekong delta (which comprise a new Master Plan and a new 5-year socio-economic development plan), which emphasize agro-business development, should adopt approaches that address concerns of sustainability as well as a more streamlined policy formulation and implementation that accounts for stakeholder concerns at both provincial and national levels.