The use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to evaluate mesoscale model QPF as a function of convective system morphology during IHOP 2002
The use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to evaluate mesoscale model QPF as a function of convective system morphology during IHOP 2002
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DOI：
10.1175/waf918.1
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发表时间：
2006-06
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
J. Grams;W. Gallus;S. Koch;Linda S. Wharton;Andrew F. Loughe;E. Ebert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Grams;W. Gallus;S. Koch;Linda S. Wharton;Andrew F. Loughe;E. Ebert
摘要Ebert-McBride技术(EMT)是一种面向实体的定量降水验证方法。在2002年国际H2O项目(IHOP)期间，对EMT进行了修改，以优化其识别连续雨区(CRA)的能力。这项技术随后被用于在IHOP领域运行的三个12公里模式模拟中确定作为观测对流系统形态函数的系统误差源：ETA、第五代宾夕法尼亚州立大学-NCAR中尺度模式(MM5)和天气研究和预报(WRF)。对EMT进行了微调，以优化IHOP期间观测到的降水系统尺度的预报与观测的模式匹配。为了调查EMT提供的几项误差措施，利用在IHOP领域确定的所有CRA的雷达数据，对观测系统进行了详细的形态分析。修正的EMT表明，ETA模式产生了平均降雨率、峰值降雨量和总降雨量。
Abstract The Ebert–McBride technique (EMT) is an entity-oriented method useful for quantitative precipitation verification. The EMT was modified to optimize its ability to identify contiguous rain areas (CRAs) during the 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP). This technique was then used to identify systematic sources of error as a function of observed convective system morphology in three 12-km model simulations run over the IHOP domain: Eta, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The EMT was fine-tuned to optimize the pattern matching of forecasts to observations for the scales of precipitation systems observed during IHOP. To investigate several error measures provided by the EMT, a detailed morphological analysis of observed systems was performed using radar data for all CRAs identified in the IHOP domain. The modified EMT suggests that the Eta Model produced average rain rates, peak rainfall amounts, and total rai...