Estimates of Statewide and Nationwide Carbon Dioxide Emission Reductions and Their Costs From Cash for Clunkers
Estimates of Statewide and Nationwide Carbon Dioxide Emission Reductions and Their Costs From Cash for Clunkers
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1934706
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发表时间：
2011-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Edmund J. Zolnik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Edmund J. Zolnik
车辆报废计划鼓励私人车主报废旧的、燃油效率较低的车辆，这有望增加消费者在私家车上的支出，并减少温室气体排放。 2009 年颁布的“旧车换现金”计划是美国第一个全国性的此类计划，过去的计划仅限于特定地区和州。虽然用销售额来衡量此类计划的成功很简单，但用温室气体减排量来衡量它们的成功则不然。估计这些减少量的大部分困难与预测私家车主将如何使用更新、更省油的车辆有关。本研究利用有关以旧换新车辆通常使用方式的横截面数据以及由于反弹效应（燃油效率的提高导致更多使用）而预计使用量的增加，估算了两种不同车辆使用场景的减排量及其成本。对这两种情景的估计表明，“旧车换现金”计划对全国范围内二氧化碳排放的影响充其量是有限的。对全州二氧化碳减排量和旧车换现金成本的探索表明，正如文献所表明的那样，车辆报废计划的环境效益是有限的。
Vehicle scrappage programs which provide private owners with inducements to scrap their older, less-fuel efficient vehicles offer the promise to both increase consumer spending on private vehicles and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Cash for Clunkers program enacted in 2009 is the first nationwide incarnation of such a program in the United States where past programs have been confined to specific regions and states. While measuring the success of such programs in terms of sales is straightforward, measuring their success in terms of greenhouse gas emission reductions is not. Much of the difficulty in estimating these reductions relates to projecting how private vehicle owners will use their newer, more fuel efficient vehicles. Using cross-sectional data on how the trade-in vehicles were typically used as well as projected usage increases due to the rebound effect (improvements in fuel efficiency cause more usage), this study estimates emission reductions and their costs for two different vehicle usage scenarios. Estimates from the two scenarios indicate that the nationwide effects of the Cash for Clunkers program on carbon dioxide emissions are modest, at best. Exploration of statewide carbon dioxide emission reductions and costs from Cash for Clunkers indicates that, as suggested by the literature, the environmental benefits of vehicle scrappage programs are limited.