The role of quantitative cross-case analysis in understanding tropical smallholder farmers' adaptive capacity to climate shocks
The role of quantitative cross-case analysis in understanding tropical smallholder farmers' adaptive capacity to climate shocks
复制标题
定量跨案例分析在了解热带小农对气候冲击的适应能力方面的作用
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab59c8
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Beauchamp E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beauchamp E
随着气候变化，气候冲击的规模和频率预计将增加，特别是影响整个热带地区的贫困和脆弱社区。更好地了解和提高社区复原力的紧迫性反映在《巴黎协定》等国际协定以及适应研究和行动方案的增加中。反过来，需要收集和传播有关社区气候复原力的证据，这就越来越多地提出了如何评估复原力的问题。虽然经验性案例研究经常被用来深入研究适应能力的具体情况，但综合结果对于在政策设计的规模上得出可推广的结论至关重要。然而，能够从个别地方研究中得出跨案例分析的数据集，方法和模式在气候适应性文献中仍然很少见。我们使用实证案例研究厄尔尼诺对来自五个国家的小农户的影响，以测试应用定量数据汇总的政策建议。我们将数据标准化为一个聚合数据集，以探索关键人口因素如何影响气候冲击的影响，以作物损失为模型。我们发现，虽然交叉研究的结果部分符合从个别项目和理论的研究结果，与定量聚合仍然存在一些挑战时，检查复杂的，上下文和多维的概念，如弹性。我们的结论是，未来的演习综合跨站点的经验证据在气候韧性可以加速研究政策的影响，通过使用混合方法，专注于特定的景观或区域尺度，并通过使用共享的框架和学习练习促进研究。
Climate shocks are predicted to increase in magnitude and frequency as the climate changes, notably impacting poor and vulnerable communities across the Tropics. The urgency to better understand and improve communities' resilience is reflected in international agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the multiplication of adaptation research and action programs. In turn, the need for collecting and communicating evidence on the climate resilience of communities has increasingly drawn questions concerning how to assess resilience. While empirical case studies are often used to delve into the context-specific nature of resilience, synthesizing results is essential to produce generalizable findings at the scale at which policies are designed. Yet datasets, methods and modalities that enable cross-case analyses that draw from individual local studies are still rare in climate resilience literature. We use empirical case studies on the impacts of El Niño on smallholder households from five countries to test the application of quantitative data aggregation for policy recommendation. We standardized data into an aggregated dataset to explore how key demographic factors affected the impact of climate shocks, modeled as crop loss. We find that while cross-study results partially align with the findings from the individual projects and with theory, several challenges associated with quantitative aggregation remain when examining complex, contextual and multi-dimensional concepts such as resilience. We conclude that future exercises synthesizing cross-site empirical evidence in climate resilience could accelerate research to policy impact by using mixed methods, focusing on specific landscapes or regional scales, and facilitating research through the use of shared frameworks and learning exercises.