Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality
Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality
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DOI：
10.5194/gmd-6-1429-2013
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Russell, A. G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Trail, M.;Tsimpidi, A. P.;Russell, A. G.
气候变化可能会加剧未来的区域空气污染事件，使条件更有利于形成高水平的臭氧。在这项研究中，我们使用光谱轻推与天气研究和预报（WRF）模型，以缩小规模的美国宇航局地球系统GISS模型E2的结果在2006年至2010年和2048年至2052年在美国本土，以比较由此产生的气象场从空气质量的角度来看，在四个季节的五年历史和未来的气候时期。GISS结果被WRF区域气候模式（RCM）用作初始和边界条件，以产生逐时气象场。降尺度技术和物理参数化的选择进行了评估，通过比较它们与原位观测。这项研究调查了类似区域气候条件的变化，分辨率为12公里× 12公里，以及气候条件的变化对美国主要城市空气质量的影响。在某些区域，高分辨率模拟产生的结果与粗分辨率模拟略有不同。此外，通过对最强烈影响空气质量的气象变量的分析，我们发现区域气候的一致变化将在秋季（美国西部，德克萨斯州，东北部和东南部）提高美国四个地区的臭氧水平，一个地区在夏季（德克萨斯州），一个地区的变化可能会导致春季（东北部）更好的空气质量。区域气候的变化将提高臭氧水平，气温上升和停滞沿着降水和通风的减少。我们还发现，在美国大多数主要城市，每日峰值温度往往会增加，这将增加与热应激相关的健康问题的风险。今后的工作将更全面地评估空气污染物的形成和清除所涉及的排放和化学。
Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM) to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.