Typhoon Morakot: Key Findings from the JournalTAOfor Improving Prediction of Extreme Rains at Landfall
Typhoon Morakot: Key Findings from the JournalTAOfor Improving Prediction of Extreme Rains at Landfall
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/bams-d-11-00155.1
复制
发表时间：
2013-02
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Chun‐Chieh Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chun‐Chieh Wu
莫拉克台风(2009)是过去50年来影响台湾最致命的台风之一。它给台湾带来了灾难性的破坏，造成673人死亡，26人失踪。这场缓慢移动的风暴产生了巨大的降雨量，峰值为2,965毫米(116.73英寸)。在4天内(2009年8月7日至10日)，并在整个台湾南部造成了巨大的泥石流和严重的洪水。一场大规模的泥石流摧毁了整个小林村，仅这个村庄就有大约500人死亡。估计农业损失约为新台币164亿元(约合5.5亿美元)。莫拉克还在中国和菲律宾造成了广泛的破坏。因此，改进登陆热带气旋的预报技术和预警系统已成为科学家和政府机构面临的最重要任务之一。自这次极端降雨事件以来，人们从不同的科学和预报角度对其创纪录的降雨量进行了广泛的研究。因此，2010年3月25-26日在台湾台北举行了题为“莫拉克台风(2009)国际研讨会”的会议，会议期间就台风莫拉克(2009)的各个方面进行了沟通和讨论。这次会议的具体目的是找出我们对TCS的理解中的差距，并讨论改进对这些极端降水和洪水事件的警告所需的先进预报指导工具。该社区更进一步，向《陆地、大气和海洋科学》(TAO)杂志提出了一期特刊，以全面总结莫拉克和其他与登陆TCS有关的极端降雨事件。特刊《莫拉克台风(2009)：观测、模拟和预报应用》于2011年12月出版，内容包括环流和结构的观测分析、中尺度模式模拟、数据同化技术以及实际预报验证和指导。本期特刊的主要发现和共识是通过统计、观察和数值模拟的方法得出的，总结如下。
T yphoon Morakot (2009) was one of the deadliest typhoons to impact Taiwan in the past 50 years. It brought catastrophic damage to Taiwan, leaving 673 people dead and 26 others missing. This slow-moving storm produced huge amounts of rainfall, peaking at 2,965 mm (116.73 in.) in 4 days (7–10 August 2009), and caused enormous mudslides and severe flooding throughout southern Taiwan. One massive mudslide devastated the entire Shiaolin village, killing approximately 500 people in this village alone. The estimated agricultural losses amounted to roughly NT$16.4 billion (about US$550 million). Morakot also caused widespread damage in China and the Philippines. Improving forecasting techniques and early warning systems for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) has thus become one of the most important tasks facing scientists and governmental agencies. Since this extreme rainfall event, there have been extensive studies focusing on its record-breaking amount of rainfall from various scientific and forecast perspectives. Accordingly, a conference named “The International Workshop on Typhoon Morakot (2009),” summarized by C.-S. Lee and colleagues in a 2011 article, was held on 25–26 March 2010 in Taipei, Taiwan, during which various aspects of TCs were communicated and discussed. The conference specifically aimed to identify gaps in our understanding of TCs and to discuss advanced forecast guidance tools required to improve warnings of these extreme precipitation and flooding events. The community went a step further to propose a special issue to the journal Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (TAO) in order to provide a comprehensive summary of Morakot and other extreme rainfall events associated with landfalling TCs. The special issue, “Typhoon Morakot (2009): Observation, Modeling, and Forecasting Applications,” was published in December 2011 and covered observation analyses of circulations and structures, mesoscale model simulations, data assimilation techniques, and practical forecast verification and guidance. Key findings and consensuses in this special issue are carried out from approaches of statistics, observations, and numerical simulations, and are summarized below.