The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production
The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production
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DOI：
10.5194/bg-10-4357-2013
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发表时间：
2013-06
期刊：
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
S. Henson;Harriet Cole;C. Beaulieu;A. Yool
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Henson;Harriet Cole;C. Beaulieu;A. Yool
预计海洋初级生产力（PP）的季节周期（即物候）将随着气候变暖而发生变化。本文利用6个全球生物地球化学模型的输出，考察了PP的季节振幅和峰值时间对IPCC AR5变暖情景的响应。我们还研究了PP物候的趋势是否比年平均PP的趋势更容易被检测到。到2100年，在大多数生物群系中，PP的季节性幅度平均每年减少1-2%，但北极除外，其每年增加约1%。与此同时，到2100年，全球大部分地区的PP峰值时间提前了约0.5-1个月，北极地区尤其明显。这些变化是由海表温度的季节振幅增加（其中最大值比最小值变热得快）和混合层深度和表面硝酸盐浓度的季节振幅减小驱动的。我们的研究结果表明，目前强烈季节性（形成华花）的地区（通常在高纬度地区发现）正在转变为弱季节性（不形成华花）地区，这是当代亚热带条件的特征。平均而言，检测气候变化驱动的PP季节性振幅趋势需要36年的数据，而平均年PP需要32年。月分辨率模式输出不足以解决物候变化。我们的结论是，浮游植物季节性分析不一定是检测气候变化对海洋生产力影响的捷径。
The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology) of oceanic primary production (PP) is expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6 global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP decreases by an average of 1–2% per year by 2100 in most biomes, with the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ~1% per year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by ~0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than the minima) and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming) regions, typically found at high latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom) regions, characteristic of contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP, compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity.