Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology: Development of a Methodology Through a Case Study in the Andes of Peru
Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology: Development of a Methodology Through a Case Study in the Andes of Peru
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评估气候变化对山区水文的影响：通过秘鲁安第斯山脉的案例研究制定方法
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
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通讯作者：
M. Escobar
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作者：
W. Vergara;A. Deeb;Irene Leino;A. Kitoh;M. Escobar
研究气候变化对山区水文的影响的目的是制定一种方法，以评估气候变化对山区水文反应的净影响。这是通过对秘鲁安第斯山脉的个案研究来完成的。预测气候变化对资源供应的影响的例子很少，将这种预测应用于可持续经济发展规划的例子更少。本报告概述了世界银行能源和气候变化小组为开发评估气候对秘鲁安第斯山脉地表水文影响的方法工具所做的努力。分析气候对秘鲁水文的潜在影响的重要性部分源于对热带冰川退缩、独特的安第斯湿地生态系统干燥以及天气多变性和极端天气增加的担忧，所有这些都将影响水资源调节。该研究报告以及世界银行最近发表的报告《秘鲁克服水电障碍》旨在为秘鲁的能源开发计划提供参考，并使人们能够深入了解秘鲁在未来气候情景下水文学的表现，主要目的是促进预测气候变化对安第斯山脉和其他山脉影响的方法
The objective of study of the impacts of climate change on mountain hydrology is to develop a methodology to assess the net impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in mountainous regions. This is done through a case study in the Peruvian Andes. There are few examples of predictions of the impact of climate change on resource availability and even fewer examples of the applications of such predictions to planning for sustainable economic development. This report presents a summary of the efforts of a Bank energy and climate change team to develop methodological tools for the assessment of climate impacts on surface hydrology in the Peruvian Andes. The importance of analyzing the potential climate impacts on hydrology in Peru arises in part from concerns about the retreat of tropical glaciers, the drying of unique Andean wetland ecosystems, as well as increased weather variability and weather extremes, all of which will affect water regulation. The study, together with a recently published report by the World Bank, Peru Overcoming the Barriers to Hydropower, is intended to inform plans for energy development in Peru and enable provides some insights into how hydrology may behave under future climate scenarios in Peru, the main purpose is to contribute to the methodological approaches to anticipate impacts from climate change in the Andes Region and other mountain ranges