Effects of global climate change on geographic distributions of Mexican Cracidae
Effects of global climate change on geographic distributions of Mexican Cracidae
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/s0304-3800(01)00345-3
复制
发表时间：
2001-10-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Navarro-Sigüenza, AG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peterson, AT;Sánchez-Cordero, V;Navarro-Sigüenza, AG
虽然气候变化及其影响是详细研究的常见主题，但这些变化对物种地理分布的影响仍然很少探索。我们提出了第一个跨物种分析的影响，全球气候变化的一个鸟类家庭，Cracidae，在墨西哥的分布，根据预测模型的生态位从目前的条件下，模拟未来的条件下，从大气环流模型的气候变化。根据两种不同的气候变化情景和关于物种扩散能力的三种假设，对物种分布的影响从急剧减少到适度增加不等。这些结果说明了物种对环境变化的地理反应的复杂性，并强调需要详细分析个别物种的生态需求。(C)2001 Elsevier Science B.V.保留所有权利。
Although climate change and its implications are a frequent subject of detailed study, the effects of these changes on species' geographic distributions remain little explored. We present a first cross-species analysis of the effects of global climate change on the distributions of one bird family, the Cracidae, in Mexico, based on projecting models of ecological niches from present conditions to modeled future conditions taken from general circulation models of climate change. Based on two different scenarios of climate change and on three assumptions regarding species' dispersal abilities, effects on species' distributions range from drastic reduction to modest increases. These results illustrate the complex nature of species' geographic responses to environmental change, and emphasize the need for detailed analysis of individual species' ecological requirements. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.