An evaluation of risk estimation procedures for mixtures of carcinogens
An evaluation of risk estimation procedures for mixtures of carcinogens
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DOI：
10.1023/a:1007074426128
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发表时间：
1999-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Chen, JJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hwang, JS;Chen, JJ
对接触混合化学致癌物所造成的健康风险的估计，通常是基于若干现有单一化合物研究的综合信息。目前直接将单个致癌成分的上限风险估计值相加作为混合物总风险上限的做法通常过于保守。Gaylor和Chen （1996, Risk Analysis）提出了一种简单的程序，仅使用个体致癌物的置信上限和中心风险估计来计算总风险的上限。Gaylor-Chen程序是基于个体风险估计分布正态性的基本假设推导出来的。在本文中，我们从覆盖概率的角度评估了Gaylor-Chen方法。Gaylor-Chen方法在个别致癌物真实风险的置信上限的覆盖率方面的表现。一般来说，如果个别致癌物的覆盖概率都近似等于名义水平，那么Gaylor-Chen方法应该表现良好。然而，如果部分或全部个体上置信限估计是保守的或反保守的，则Gaylor-Chen方法可以是保守的或反保守的，
The estimation of health risks from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the combination of information from several available single compound studies. The current practice of directly summing the upper bound risk estimates of individual carcinogenic components as an upper bound on the total risk of a mixture is known to be generally too conservative. Gaylor and Chen (1996, Risk Analysis) proposed a simple procedure to compute an upper bound on the total risk using only the upper confidence limits and central risk estimates of individual carcinogens. The Gaylor-Chen procedure was derived based on an underlying assumption of the normality for the distributions of individual risk estimates. In this paper we evaluated the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms of the coverage probability. The performance of the Gaylor-Chen approach in terms the coverages of the upper confidence limits on the true risks of individual carcinogens. In general, if the coverage probabilities for the individual carcinogens are all approximately equal to the nominal level, then the Gaylor-Chen approach should perform well. However, the Gaylor-Chen approach can be conservative or anti-conservative if some or all individual upper confidence limit estimates are conservative or anti-conservative,